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Who cares IV ? Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 28 February 2026, at 12:01 a.m.

In Response To: Who cares IV ? Rollout (pierrez)

		White is Joueur 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=----bBBBB---bE-b-bbcb-B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: -0,273
	Player: Opponent: 43,73% (G:7,64% B:0,32%) 56,27% (G:16,32% B:0,47%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,288...-0,257) - [100,0%] Duration: 38 minutes 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0,318 (-0,045)
	Player: Opponent: 41,11% (G:8,31% B:0,39%) 58,89% (G:11,13% B:0,39%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,333...-0,303) - [0,0%] Duration: 36 minutes 10 seconds
3.	Rollout1	22/16 13/8	eq: -0,374 (-0,102)
	Player: Opponent: 41,96% (G:7,80% B:0,35%) 58,04% (G:19,54% B:0,55%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,388...-0,361) - [0,0%] Duration: 34 minutes 34 seconds
4.	4-ply	13/2	eq: -0,425 (-0,152)
	Player: Opponent: 37,58% (G:7,63% B:0,21%) 62,42% (G:12,41% B:0,44%)
5.	3-ply	13/7 8/3	eq: -0,606 (-0,333)
	Player: Opponent: 33,71% (G:6,34% B:0,21%) 66,29% (G:14,21% B:0,65%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is pierrez's rollout of the original position.

Below, Variant 1 is a cusp.

Variants 2 through 5 demonstrate that bringing two lone spares down can be inferior to running even when said spares can be used as active builders to make a point in front of White's anchor.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 144 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBBBB---bE-b-bbc-bB---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 5pt is changed to her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.224
	Player: Opponent: 44.01% (G:7.94% B:0.31%) 55.99% (G:11.08% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.231...-0.217) - [57.9%] Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: -0.225 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 45.35% (G:7.45% B:0.30%) 54.65% (G:16.59% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.232...-0.218) - [42.1%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46039272 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---Bb-BBB---bE-b-bbcb-B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Blue's 5pt is changed to his 3pt

1.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: -0.529
	Player: Opponent: 37.72% (G:6.34% B:0.27%) 62.28% (G:19.40% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.537...-0.521) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.550 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 35.30% (G:6.55% B:0.23%) 64.70% (G:12.17% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.557...-0.543) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47300933 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---b-BBBB---bE-b-bbcb-B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White 21pt is changed to her 22pt

1.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: -0.011
	Player: Opponent: 50.76% (G:10.18% B:0.46%) 49.24% (G:14.91% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.026...+0.005) - [100.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.096 (-0.086)
	Player: Opponent: 47.16% (G:10.85% B:0.41%) 52.84% (G:11.41% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.111...-0.082) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 42 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 43797767 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b--BBBB---bE-b-bbcb-B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White 21pt is changed to her 23pt

1.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: +0.267
	Player: Opponent: 58.38% (G:12.19% B:0.56%) 41.62% (G:14.03% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.259...+0.275) - [56.8%] Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: +0.266 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 56.67% (G:15.11% B:0.64%) 43.33% (G:10.87% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.258...+0.274) - [43.2%] Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 33978672 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---BBBB---bE-b-bbcb-B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 5: White 21pt is changed to her 24pt

1.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: +0.266
	Player: Opponent: 58.42% (G:12.03% B:0.67%) 41.58% (G:13.87% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.251...+0.280) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 15 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: +0.209 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 54.90% (G:15.65% B:0.77%) 45.10% (G:11.71% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.193...+0.224) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 31 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91219108 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Who cares IV ?
  pierrez -- Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 3:35 p.m.
  • Who cares IV ?
    Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 3:51 p.m.
  • Who cares IV ?
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 4:42 p.m.
    • Who cares IV ?
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 9:19 p.m.
  • Who cares IV ?
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 25 February 2026, at 1:04 a.m.
  • Who cares IV ?
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 25 February 2026, at 2:49 a.m.
  • Who cares IV ?
    Stick -- Thursday, 26 February 2026, at 10:30 p.m.
  • Who cares IV ? Rollout
    pierrez -- Friday, 27 February 2026, at 1:43 p.m.
    • Who cares IV ? Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 28 February 2026, at 12:01 a.m.