DQ 10: Safety first? - Three Variants

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DQ 10: Safety first? - Three Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 2 March 2026, at 4:55 p.m.

In Response To: DQ 10: Safety first? * RO * (leobueno)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139

7 point match

pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a---E-D-aBcB---bbd-b-B--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:7:10
Original Position

1. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/4 eq: -0.910
Player:
Opponent: 30.18% (G:7.29% B:0.41%)
69.82% (G:21.22% B:1.54%) Conf.: ą 0.019 (-0.929...-0.891) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 23 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/2* eq: -0.980 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent: 28.36% (G:6.71% B:0.24%)
71.64% (G:19.75% B:1.27%) Conf.: ą 0.017 (-0.997...-0.962) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 02 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/9 11/5 eq: -0.982 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent: 27.76% (G:5.80% B:0.26%)
72.24% (G:18.29% B:1.07%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (-0.999...-0.966) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq: -0.998 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent: 26.34% (G:5.29% B:0.32%)
73.66% (G:15.20% B:0.74%) Conf.: ą 0.015 (-1.013...-0.983) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 03 seconds
5. XG Roller++ 11/3 eq: -1.000 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 27.09% (G:5.10% B:0.15%)
72.91% (G:17.35% B:0.90%)
6. XG Roller++ 11/5 6/4 eq: -1.000 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 28.82% (G:5.27% B:0.19%)
71.18% (G:23.21% B:1.43%)
7. XG Roller++ 13/5 eq: -1.000 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 26.44% (G:4.71% B:0.18%)
73.56% (G:18.90% B:0.98%)
8. XG Roller++ 11/9 8/2* eq: -1.000 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 27.47% (G:5.45% B:0.19%)
72.53% (G:21.38% B:1.32%)
9. XG Roller++ 11/5 8/6 eq: -1.000 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 26.49% (G:4.82% B:0.15%)
73.51% (G:20.05% B:1.08%)
10. XG Roller++ 13/11 8/2* eq: -1.000 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 26.07% (G:4.83% B:0.18%)
73.93% (G:19.39% B:1.01%)
11. XG Roller++ 13/7 6/4 eq: -1.000 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 27.91% (G:4.69% B:0.21%)
72.09% (G:26.60% B:1.70%)
12. XG Roller++ 13/7 8/6 eq: -1.000 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 24.86% (G:4.10% B:0.16%)
75.14% (G:21.30% B:1.13%)

¹ 1400 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76226109
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is leobueno's rollout of the original position.
Below are three contrasting variants. Altogether, four positions with four different plays.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a---D-E-aBcB---bbd-b-B--:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A Blue 6pt spare is moved back to the 8pt

1. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/2* eq: -0.858
Player:
Opponent: 29.76% (G:7.05% B:0.24%)
70.24% (G:19.01% B:1.18%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.867...-0.850) - [86.2%]
Duration: 54 minutes 28 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/4 eq: -0.866 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 30.54% (G:6.72% B:0.26%)
69.46% (G:21.55% B:1.41%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.877...-0.855) - [13.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
3. Rollout² 11/9 11/5 eq: -0.943 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent: 28.05% (G:5.58% B:0.20%)
71.95% (G:17.97% B:1.14%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.963...-0.923) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 31 seconds
4. Rollout² 13/11 13/7 eq: -0.944 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent: 26.97% (G:5.08% B:0.17%)
73.03% (G:15.54% B:0.78%) Conf.: ± 0.025 (-0.968...-0.919) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 01 second

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83577427
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83577427
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a---E-D-aBcB---b-d-bbB--:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 7pt is changed to her 3pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq: -0.852
Player:
Opponent: 29.41% (G:5.43% B:0.22%)
70.59% (G:16.96% B:0.85%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.861...-0.843) - [99.2%]
Duration: 49 minutes 56 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/4 eq: -0.868 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 31.71% (G:6.83% B:0.26%)
68.29% (G:24.51% B:1.72%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.877...-0.858) - [0.8%]
Duration: 56 minutes 16 seconds
3. Rollout² 11/9 11/5 eq: -0.894 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent: 30.03% (G:5.99% B:0.26%)
69.97% (G:20.98% B:1.21%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.910...-0.878) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 22 seconds
4. Rollout² 11/3 eq: -0.897 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent: 29.34% (G:5.73% B:0.25%)
70.66% (G:19.82% B:1.15%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.916...-0.877) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 15 seconds
5. Rollout² 8/6 8/2* eq: -0.905 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent: 29.95% (G:6.38% B:0.22%)
70.05% (G:21.43% B:1.31%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.922...-0.889) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 18 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69722710
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69722710
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--a---E-D-aBcB---bbc-baB--:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White has slotted from 6pt to 3pt

1. Rollout¹ 11/9 11/5 eq: -0.782
Player:
Opponent: 31.22% (G:7.92% B:0.31%)
68.78% (G:20.10% B:1.26%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.796...-0.768) - [99.9%]
Duration: 34 minutes 28 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/2* 6/4 eq: -0.815 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 31.81% (G:8.16% B:0.33%)
68.19% (G:23.33% B:1.64%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.831...-0.798) - [0.1%]
Duration: 37 minutes 49 seconds
3. Rollout² 13/11 13/7 eq: -0.863 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent: 28.71% (G:6.72% B:0.28%)
71.29% (G:16.57% B:0.92%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.879...-0.846) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 28 seconds
4. Rollout² 8/6 8/2* eq: -0.887 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent: 29.47% (G:7.66% B:0.28%)
70.53% (G:20.55% B:1.34%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.904...-0.869) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 00 second

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32103677
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32103677
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

DQ 10: Safety first?
leobueno -- Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 3:16 p.m.
- DQ 10: Safety first?
  Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 4:38 p.m.
- DQ 10: Safety first?
  ah_clem -- Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 8:30 p.m.
- DQ 10: Safety first?
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 24 February 2026, at 9:28 p.m.
- DQ 10: Safety first?
  Stick -- Thursday, 26 February 2026, at 10:32 p.m.
- DQ 10: Safety first? * RO *
  leobueno -- Sunday, 1 March 2026, at 9:50 p.m.
  - DQ 10: Safety first? * RO *
    pierrez -- Monday, 2 March 2026, at 9:00 a.m.
  - DQ 10: Safety first? - Three Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 2 March 2026, at 4:55 p.m.
  - DQ 10: Safety first? * RO *
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 3 March 2026, at 4:13 p.m.

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