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PotD 02-22-26 - Cube Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 3 March 2026, at 1:42 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-22-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-----CD-D---dB---cbdA--Ab-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.99% (G:13.87% B:0.18%) 74.04% (G:18.23% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.01% (G:3.27% B:0.11%) 25.96% (G:4.03% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.607 +1.248
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.930 (-0.070)±0.004 (+0.925..+0.934)
Double/Take:+1.084 (+0.084)±0.007 (+1.078..+1.091)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are three cube variants, with actions all different from each other and the original.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Bb---DBC---bD---d-dc-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 20pt checker is on her 23pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.73% (G:6.89% B:0.20%) 67.87% (G:6.69% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.27% (G:4.42% B:0.13%) 32.13% (G:4.50% B:0.14%)
Cubeless Equities +0.380 +0.759
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.661±0.013 (+0.648..+0.673)
Double/Take:+0.573 (-0.088)±0.015 (+0.557..+0.588)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.339)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44214314
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 55 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---bDBC---bD---d-dc-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 23pt checker is on her 20pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.01% (G:1.74% B:0.03%) 77.30% (G:1.65% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.99% (G:1.03% B:0.02%) 22.70% (G:0.99% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.547 +1.105
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.921 (-0.064)±0.007 (+0.914..+0.927)
Double/Take:+0.984±0.008 (+0.976..+0.993)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.016)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32103677
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 17 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Ba--aDBC---bD---dcd------:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's 5pt checkers are on her 7pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.83% (G:20.47% B:0.24%) 76.09% (G:23.17% B:0.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.17% (G:2.92% B:0.10%) 23.91% (G:3.54% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.713 +1.439
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.009±0.005 (+1.005..+1.014)
Redouble/Take:+1.284 (+0.275)±0.009 (+1.275..+1.293)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.009)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.2%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69722710
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds

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