[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

PotD 02-24-26 - Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 6 March 2026, at 3:08 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-24-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 93
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BaBCBAAA--A---bcbcBb-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.61% (G:8.38% B:0.19%) 69.26% (G:9.16% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.39% (G:10.93% B:0.28%) 30.74% (G:10.35% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities +0.346 +0.747
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.608±0.004 (+0.604..+0.612)
Double/Take:+0.593 (-0.016)±0.007 (+0.585..+0.600)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.392)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.7%
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are two cube variants. Altogether three positions with three different cube actions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 91
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BaBCBAAA--A---bcbcB-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 3pt is changed to her 2pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.68% (G:9.11% B:0.20%) 70.18% (G:9.80% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.32% (G:10.65% B:0.22%) 29.82% (G:9.64% B:0.20%)
Cubeless Equities +0.378 +0.812
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.625 (-0.030)±0.006 (+0.619..+0.631)
Double/Take:+0.655±0.011 (+0.644..+0.666)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.345)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32103677
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 93
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--aBCBAAA--A---bcbcBb-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Blue's 3pt is changed to her 1pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 48.41% (G:5.86% B:0.14%) 48.61% (G:5.86% B:0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 51.59% (G:13.67% B:0.37%) 51.39% (G:13.49% B:0.36%)
Cubeless Equities -0.112 -0.213
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.021±0.013 (-0.033..-0.008)
Double/Beaver:-0.987 (-0.967)±0.030 (-1.017..-0.957)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.021)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 32.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20906680
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.