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Rollout (tricky tricky tricky) -- Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 15 March 2026, at 3:51 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-02-26 - Rollout (tricky tricky tricky) (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aB-CBBbB-bB---c-dBab---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	7/3* 4/3	eq: -0.018
	Player: Opponent: 54.03% (G:19.24% B:0.73%) 45.97% (G:11.04% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.029...-0.007) - [100.0%] Duration: 48.6 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3*	eq: -0.053 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 53.02% (G:16.40% B:0.57%) 46.98% (G:9.61% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.063...-0.043) - [0.0%] Duration: 46.9 seconds
3.	Rollout1	7/6 7/3*	eq: -0.070 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 52.22% (G:15.88% B:0.51%) 47.78% (G:9.08% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.079...-0.062) - [0.0%] Duration: 45.0 seconds
4.	Rollout1	10/5	eq: -0.079 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 52.15% (G:14.87% B:0.58%) 47.85% (G:9.26% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.092...-0.067) - [0.0%] Duration: 49.9 seconds
5.	Rollout1	7/3* 3/2	eq: -0.080 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 52.41% (G:15.67% B:0.54%) 47.59% (G:10.17% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.089...-0.071) - [0.0%] Duration: 48.7 seconds
6.	Rollout1	8/7 8/4	eq: -0.112 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 51.14% (G:10.23% B:0.30%) 48.86% (G:5.67% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.120...-0.104) - [0.0%] Duration: 43.5 seconds
7.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: -0.135 (-0.117)
	Player: Opponent: 50.47% (G:11.30% B:0.23%) 49.53% (G:6.87% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.143...-0.127) - [0.0%] Duration: 41.1 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are two contrasting variants, even though a substantial part of me always roots for the "clever play" to be right. Altogether three positions, representing three different best plays.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aB-CBBbB-bB---c-dB-c---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 4pt blot is lifted to her 3pt

1.	Rollout1	8/3*	eq: +0.008
	Player: Opponent: 54.95% (G:17.91% B:0.63%) 45.05% (G:9.69% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.003...+0.013) - [100.0%] Duration: 53 minutes 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/3* 4/3	eq: -0.007 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 54.40% (G:18.88% B:0.67%) 45.60% (G:10.80% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.012...-0.002) - [0.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 13 seconds
3.	Rollout2	7/6 7/3*	eq: -0.018 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 53.88% (G:17.04% B:0.58%) 46.12% (G:8.99% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.023...-0.012) - [0.0%] Duration: 36 minutes 58 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32806468 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32806468 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aB-CBBcB-bB---c-dB-b---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 4pt blot is back on her 16pt

1.	Rollout1	8/7 8/4	eq: +0.068
	Player: Opponent: 57.73% (G:11.85% B:0.30%) 42.27% (G:4.88% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.063...+0.072) - [99.8%] Duration: 47 minutes 12 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3*	eq: +0.058 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 56.29% (G:18.69% B:0.56%) 43.71% (G:8.23% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.053...+0.063) - [0.2%] Duration: 52 minutes 10 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/1	eq: +0.051 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 56.84% (G:13.67% B:0.30%) 43.16% (G:6.10% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.047...+0.055) - [0.0%] Duration: 46 minutes 25 seconds
4.	Rollout2	7/6 7/3*	eq: +0.041 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 55.73% (G:17.91% B:0.52%) 44.27% (G:7.85% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.036...+0.047) - [0.0%] Duration: 37 minutes 06 seconds
5.	Rollout3	7/3* 4/3	eq: +0.022 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 54.79% (G:18.86% B:0.57%) 45.21% (G:8.89% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.014...+0.030) - [0.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 19 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 41779772 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 41779772 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 41779772 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 03-02-26
  Stick -- Saturday, 7 March 2026, at 8:08 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-02-26
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 7 March 2026, at 1:08 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-02-26
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 7 March 2026, at 2:00 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 03-02-26
      Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Saturday, 7 March 2026, at 5:11 p.m.
    • SPOILER Position of the Day 03-02-26
      ah_clem -- Saturday, 7 March 2026, at 7:25 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-02-26
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 8 March 2026, at 1:41 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-02-26 - Rollout (tricky tricky tricky)
    Stick -- Tuesday, 10 March 2026, at 8:40 a.m.
    • Rollout (tricky tricky tricky) -- Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 15 March 2026, at 3:51 a.m.