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PotD 03-03-26 - Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 15 March 2026, at 5:47 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-03-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aACCBBBa--b--a-b-cB-c-b-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.Rollout120/15* eq: +0.843
Player:
Opponent:
79.32% (G:37.69% B:2.22%)
20.68% (G:6.39% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.836...+0.851) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20.8 seconds
2.Rollout15/2* 4/2eq: +0.821 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
75.15% (G:44.80% B:2.11%)
24.85% (G:4.69% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.814...+0.828) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17.8 seconds
3.Rollout15/3 4/1eq: +0.807 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
80.18% (G:30.73% B:0.89%)
19.82% (G:3.74% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.800...+0.814) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.5 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. (I like the contrast of the first one in particular.) Altogether, three positions with three different plays.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aACCBBBa-b---a-b-cB-c-b-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 13pt is changed to her 14pt

1.Rollout15/2* 4/2eq: +0.863
Player:
Opponent:
76.02% (G:46.34% B:1.99%)
23.98% (G:4.44% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.856...+0.870) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 4/1eq: +0.820 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
79.88% (G:32.47% B:0.91%)
20.12% (G:3.64% B:0.14%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.812...+0.827) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout120/15* eq: +0.806 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
78.08% (G:37.04% B:2.35%)
21.92% (G:7.08% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.797...+0.814) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87098568
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aACCBBBa--b--a-b-cBc--b-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 3pt is changed to her 4pt

1.Rollout15/3 4/1eq: +0.772
Player:
Opponent:
79.13% (G:29.84% B:0.78%)
20.87% (G:3.87% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.769...+0.776) - [99.9%]
Duration: 10 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout15/2* 4/2eq: +0.764 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
73.24% (G:43.85% B:2.13%)
26.76% (G:5.14% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.761...+0.768) - [0.1%]
Duration: 11 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout220/15* eq: +0.725 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
75.94% (G:36.01% B:2.11%)
24.06% (G:8.13% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.717...+0.733) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32806468
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32806468
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aACCBBBa--b--a-b-cBc--b-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout15/3 4/1eq: +0.772
Player:
Opponent:
79.13% (G:29.84% B:0.78%)
20.87% (G:3.87% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.769...+0.776) - [99.9%]
Duration: 10 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout15/2* 4/2eq: +0.764 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:
73.24% (G:43.85% B:2.13%)
26.76% (G:5.14% B:0.18%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.761...+0.768) - [0.1%]
Duration: 11 minutes 51 seconds
3.Rollout220/15* eq: +0.725 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
75.94% (G:36.01% B:2.11%)
24.06% (G:8.13% B:0.30%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.717...+0.733) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32806468
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32806468
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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