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Koca Vs Lindbom - Final Cube

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 19 July 2008, at 11:53 p.m.

In Response To: Koca Vs Lindbom - Final Cube (stw672)

Bob's a math professor and he's a very good bearoff analyzer. This is a clear money take and I think Bob knows enough about match equities to know it's also a clear take at this score. Should Lindbom send it over? I don't think so. Using the Ward count makes the adjusted pip count 44-48 which Kleinman's formula sez gives the favorite about 73.5% chances. But it's worse than this since Ward penalizes all gaps equally and that gap on the 5 with 3 checkers above it looks worse than most. If you penalize Lindbom a pip for this gap (which looks about right), Kleinman's formula gives the fav only about 70% chances.

Bob needs only around 20% to take so Lindbom is 10% away from an efficient cube in a medium to long bearoff. I think he's supposed to take a roll and hope for a more efficient cube later.

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