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41S-22E-54D-64 - Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 16 March 2026, at 7:24 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-28-26 - fourth roll [44] - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-C---bE--bd-e--B---:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	22/18(2) 13/9(2)	eq: +0.576
	Player: Opponent: 64.18% (G:15.32% B:0.64%) 35.82% (G:7.32% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.569...+0.584) - [61.8%] Duration: 3 minutes 29 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/5(2)	eq: +0.574 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 62.04% (G:22.93% B:0.92%) 37.96% (G:8.52% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.565...+0.584) - [38.2%] Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-C---bE--bb-eb-B---:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Two White 8pt spares are on her 5pt

1.	Rollout1	22/18(2) 13/9(2)	eq: +0.412
	Player: Opponent: 60.23% (G:14.24% B:0.54%) 39.77% (G:8.66% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.400...+0.425) - [100.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 10 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/5(2)	eq: +0.322 (-0.091)
	Player: Opponent: 56.31% (G:20.20% B:0.85%) 43.69% (G:10.35% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.307...+0.336) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
3.	Rollout2	22/14(2)	eq: +0.276 (-0.136)
	Player: Opponent: 57.64% (G:7.89% B:0.39%) 42.36% (G:8.72% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.026 (+0.250...+0.302) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87098568 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 88 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87098568 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 145 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-C---bE--bb-e-bB---:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Two White 8pt spares are on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	13/5(2)	eq: +0.458
	Player: Opponent: 59.81% (G:21.77% B:0.88%) 40.19% (G:9.68% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.450...+0.466) - [100.0%] Duration: 55 minutes 14 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/18(2) 13/9(2)	eq: +0.441 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 60.89% (G:14.55% B:0.56%) 39.11% (G:8.58% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.434...+0.447) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
3.	Rollout2	22/14(2)	eq: +0.296 (-0.162)
	Player: Opponent: 57.76% (G:8.04% B:0.41%) 42.24% (G:7.75% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.028 (+0.268...+0.325) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32806468 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 96 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32806468 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 150 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-C-C-C---bD--bd-e--B---:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: A Blue 13pt spare is on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	22/14(2)	eq: +0.663
	Player: Opponent: 67.32% (G:12.20% B:0.49%) 32.68% (G:5.40% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.656...+0.670) - [71.5%] Duration: 46 minutes 57 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/18(2) 13/9(2)	eq: +0.660 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 65.75% (G:16.99% B:0.62%) 34.25% (G:6.76% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.653...+0.667) - [28.5%] Duration: 43 minutes 45 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/5(2)	eq: +0.619 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 62.14% (G:26.77% B:0.91%) 37.86% (G:8.44% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.605...+0.633) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 41779772 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 41779772 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 02-28-26 - fourth roll [44]
  Stick -- Thursday, 5 March 2026, at 1:52 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-28-26 - fourth roll [44]
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 5 March 2026, at 3:03 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-28-26 - fourth roll [44]
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 5 March 2026, at 1:21 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-28-26 - fourth roll [44]
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 5 March 2026, at 9:49 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 02-28-26 - fourth roll [44] - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 10 March 2026, at 8:26 a.m.
    • 41S-22E-54D-64 - Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 16 March 2026, at 7:24 a.m.