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PotD 03-05-26 - Five Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 18 March 2026, at 12:08 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-05-26 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 178 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-B---aD--bc-cBbBb--:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	20/12*	eq: +0.214
	Player: Opponent: 51.74% (G:13.70% B:0.67%) 48.26% (G:17.29% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.208...+0.220) - [88.7%] Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10 13/8	eq: +0.209 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 51.79% (G:13.05% B:0.54%) 48.21% (G:17.17% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.203...+0.215) - [11.3%] Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/5	eq: +0.181 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 51.66% (G:12.25% B:0.51%) 48.34% (G:19.67% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.169...+0.194) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are five variants, each having a different best play.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 178 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-B---aD--bb-dBbBb--:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 8pt spare is on her 6pt

1.	Rollout1	13/10 13/8	eq: +0.242
	Player: Opponent: 52.93% (G:13.43% B:0.57%) 47.07% (G:17.41% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.234...+0.250) - [100.0%] Duration: 44 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.215 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 52.78% (G:12.67% B:0.55%) 47.22% (G:19.56% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.207...+0.222) - [0.0%] Duration: 51 minutes 30 seconds
3.	Rollout2	20/12*	eq: +0.205 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 52.08% (G:13.81% B:0.72%) 47.92% (G:18.37% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.193...+0.217) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 30 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/3 6/3	eq: +0.192 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 51.68% (G:12.62% B:0.58%) 48.32% (G:18.94% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.173...+0.210) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 42 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92466534 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 92466534 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 178 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-B---aD--bcbcB-Bb--:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 4pt is changed to her 7pt

1.	Rollout1	20/12*	eq: +0.243
	Player: Opponent: 52.01% (G:14.33% B:0.78%) 47.99% (G:15.85% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.231...+0.256) - [100.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 42 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10 13/8	eq: +0.161 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 49.41% (G:13.34% B:0.61%) 50.59% (G:16.24% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.150...+0.172) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 16 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.154 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 49.92% (G:13.10% B:0.57%) 50.08% (G:18.61% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.138...+0.170) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 16 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: +0.132 (-0.111)
	Player: Opponent: 49.16% (G:12.85% B:0.56%) 50.84% (G:17.40% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.119...+0.145) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 47 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 41208963 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 133 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 178 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-C-B---aD--bc-cBbBb--:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's 23pt checker is on her 24pt

1.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: +0.298
	Player: Opponent: 54.51% (G:14.94% B:0.69%) 45.49% (G:16.93% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.292...+0.304) - [97.8%] Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.289 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 54.46% (G:14.25% B:0.63%) 45.54% (G:17.62% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.282...+0.295) - [2.2%] Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
3.	Rollout2	13/10 13/8	eq: +0.250 (-0.048)
	Player: Opponent: 53.13% (G:13.63% B:0.68%) 46.87% (G:16.87% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.237...+0.263) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 43 seconds
4.	Rollout2	20/12*	eq: +0.218 (-0.080)
	Player: Opponent: 52.03% (G:14.45% B:0.83%) 47.97% (G:17.82% B:0.85%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.206...+0.230) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 13 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64333447 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64333447 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 182 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa---E-B---aD--bc-cBbBb--:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: Blue's 4pt checkers are on his 6pt

1.	Rollout1	13/8 6/3	eq: +0.021
	Player: Opponent: 46.87% (G:10.07% B:0.44%) 53.13% (G:21.48% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.009...+0.033) - [100.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/10 13/8	eq: -0.011 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 45.65% (G:10.04% B:0.39%) 54.35% (G:20.50% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.022...0.000) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 24 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: -0.022 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 45.93% (G:9.83% B:0.43%) 54.07% (G:23.28% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.035...-0.009) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 24 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/3 6/3	eq: -0.028 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 45.49% (G:9.63% B:0.37%) 54.51% (G:21.87% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.041...-0.016) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 20 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/10 6/1*	eq: -0.086 (-0.107)
	Player: Opponent: 42.95% (G:9.73% B:0.33%) 57.05% (G:21.52% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.098...-0.073) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 13 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62996457 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 200 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-C-B---aB--bc-cBbBbB-:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 5: Two Blue 13pt checkers are on her 24pt

1.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.137
	Player: Opponent: 53.48% (G:9.00% B:0.38%) 46.52% (G:23.65% B:3.20%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.129...+0.145) - [99.8%] Duration: 52 minutes 30 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5 8/3	eq: +0.120 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 52.63% (G:9.34% B:0.43%) 47.37% (G:23.95% B:3.03%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.112...+0.128) - [0.2%] Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
3.	Rollout1	20/12*	eq: +0.102 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 50.75% (G:11.72% B:0.63%) 49.25% (G:23.09% B:2.72%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.095...+0.110) - [0.0%] Duration: 50 minutes 52 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/3 6/3	eq: +0.081 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 50.56% (G:10.66% B:0.53%) 49.44% (G:23.48% B:2.25%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.065...+0.096) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 59 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/10 13/8	eq: +0.022 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 48.47% (G:9.52% B:0.42%) 51.53% (G:23.60% B:1.92%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.007...+0.036) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 17 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91674464 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91674464 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 03-05-26
  Stick -- Wednesday, 11 March 2026, at 1:35 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-05-26
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 11 March 2026, at 12:45 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-05-26
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Wednesday, 11 March 2026, at 1:59 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-05-26
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 11 March 2026, at 2:44 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-05-26
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 11 March 2026, at 3:58 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-05-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 12 March 2026, at 11:53 p.m.
    • PotD 03-05-26 - Five Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 18 March 2026, at 12:08 p.m.