PotD 03/08/26 - Four Variants

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PotD 03/08/26 - Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 19 March 2026, at 6:44 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-08-26 - Rollout (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----abE-C--BbC----bcbc--B-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/4* eq: -0.595
Player:
Opponent: 29.36% (G:4.66% B:0.19%)
70.64% (G:31.19% B:3.53%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.606...-0.583) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44.1 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/1 eq: -0.621 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 26.33% (G:5.09% B:0.16%)
73.67% (G:28.74% B:1.91%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.631...-0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.7 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/10 6/4* eq: -0.627 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 28.65% (G:4.96% B:0.25%)
71.35% (G:32.96% B:4.25%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.638...-0.615) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41.9 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/22 6/3 eq: -0.638 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent: 28.38% (G:5.34% B:0.25%)
71.62% (G:36.47% B:1.35%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.648...-0.629) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.1 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/3 eq: -0.638 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent: 24.78% (G:4.30% B:0.19%)
75.22% (G:25.52% B:1.66%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.648...-0.629) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.6 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq: -0.675 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent: 23.47% (G:4.08% B:0.17%)
76.53% (G:25.65% B:1.59%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.683...-0.666) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33.7 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are four variants. Altogether, five positions with five different plays.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----abE-C--BbC----bdbb--B-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 4pt spare is on her 6pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 6/3 eq: -0.569
Player:
Opponent: 30.22% (G:5.64% B:0.25%)
69.78% (G:33.86% B:1.24%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.574...-0.563) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 33 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/4* eq: -0.592 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent: 29.02% (G:4.88% B:0.22%)
70.98% (G:30.58% B:3.32%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.598...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 53 seconds
3. Rollout² 13/11 6/3 eq: -0.609 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 26.34% (G:4.79% B:0.21%)
73.66% (G:26.75% B:1.41%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.618...-0.599) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 24 seconds
4. Rollout² 6/4* 4/1 eq: -0.629 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent: 26.37% (G:4.86% B:0.17%)
73.63% (G:28.63% B:1.82%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.639...-0.619) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 00 second
5. Rollout² 13/10 6/4* eq: -0.632 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent: 28.51% (G:4.87% B:0.22%)
71.49% (G:32.47% B:3.78%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.642...-0.621) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 54 seconds
6. Rollout² 13/8 eq: -0.642 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent: 25.14% (G:4.51% B:0.20%)
74.86% (G:27.12% B:1.53%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.650...-0.633) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 28 seconds
7. Rollout² 8/3 eq: -0.645 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent: 25.02% (G:4.58% B:0.20%)
74.98% (G:27.15% B:1.61%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.654...-0.637) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
8. Rollout² 6/1 eq: -0.671 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent: 24.17% (G:4.32% B:0.18%)
75.83% (G:27.46% B:1.68%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.680...-0.662) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 28 seconds

¹ 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62996457
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62996457
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 145

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----abE-C--BbC--b--cbc--B-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 7pt is changed to her 9pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/3 eq: -0.461
Player:
Opponent: 31.22% (G:5.74% B:0.25%)
68.78% (G:25.01% B:1.43%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.466...-0.456) - [95.9%]
Duration: 41 minutes 36 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/4* eq: -0.467 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent: 33.05% (G:5.94% B:0.28%)
66.95% (G:29.14% B:3.09%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.473...-0.462) - [4.1%]
Duration: 53 minutes 35 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/1 eq: -0.472 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent: 31.39% (G:5.95% B:0.23%)
68.61% (G:26.80% B:1.89%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.477...-0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 20 seconds
4. Rollout² 13/10 6/4* eq: -0.504 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent: 32.21% (G:5.88% B:0.28%)
67.79% (G:30.24% B:3.50%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.516...-0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 10 seconds
5. Rollout² 13/8 eq: -0.511 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent: 29.30% (G:5.12% B:0.21%)
70.70% (G:24.63% B:1.36%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.520...-0.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds
6. Rollout² 8/3 eq: -0.523 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent: 29.10% (G:5.55% B:0.25%)
70.90% (G:25.90% B:1.55%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.532...-0.515) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds
7. Rollout² 24/22 6/3 eq: -0.543 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent: 31.41% (G:6.35% B:0.29%)
68.59% (G:34.97% B:1.35%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.553...-0.533) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 01 second
8. Rollout² 6/1 eq: -0.551 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent: 28.19% (G:5.31% B:0.18%)
71.81% (G:26.13% B:1.54%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.559...-0.543) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 15 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64333447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64333447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----abE-C--BbC--a-acbc--B-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: A White 7pt checker is on her 9pt

1. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/1 eq: -0.529
Player:
Opponent: 29.68% (G:5.73% B:0.22%)
70.32% (G:27.92% B:2.05%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.534...-0.524) - [96.8%]
Duration: 29 minutes 18 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/4* eq: -0.536 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent: 31.19% (G:5.56% B:0.26%)
68.81% (G:30.88% B:3.45%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.542...-0.530) - [3.2%]
Duration: 32 minutes 47 seconds
3. Rollout² 13/11 6/3 eq: -0.552 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent: 28.33% (G:5.25% B:0.21%)
71.67% (G:26.51% B:1.62%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.559...-0.545) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 59 seconds
4. Rollout³ 13/10 6/4* eq: -0.563 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent: 30.58% (G:5.71% B:0.29%)
69.42% (G:31.76% B:3.80%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.575...-0.551) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 00 second
5. Rollout³ 13/8 eq: -0.584 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent: 27.03% (G:4.84% B:0.21%)
72.97% (G:26.13% B:1.59%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.592...-0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
6. Rollout³ 8/3 eq: -0.588 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent: 27.18% (G:5.08% B:0.23%)
72.82% (G:27.41% B:1.85%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.597...-0.578) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 08 seconds
7. Rollout³ 11/8 6/4* eq: -0.603 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent: 27.74% (G:4.98% B:0.22%)
72.26% (G:29.36% B:2.90%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.613...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 29 seconds
8. Rollout³ 6/1 eq: -0.607 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent: 26.48% (G:4.98% B:0.18%)
73.52% (G:27.32% B:1.82%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.616...-0.598) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds
9. Rollout³ 24/22 6/3 eq: -0.643 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent: 29.10% (G:5.78% B:0.27%)
70.90% (G:39.51% B:1.23%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.653...-0.634) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8268953
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8268953
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8268953
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--b-a-E-C--BbC----bcbc--B-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 20pt is changed to her 23pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 6/4* eq: -0.472
Player:
Opponent: 33.89% (G:7.66% B:0.39%)
66.11% (G:32.28% B:4.60%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.480...-0.465) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 55 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/3 eq: -0.492 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent: 30.73% (G:7.46% B:0.39%)
69.27% (G:27.93% B:2.52%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.499...-0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 41 seconds
3. Rollout² 8/5 6/4* eq: -0.506 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent: 33.61% (G:6.78% B:0.34%)
66.39% (G:33.74% B:5.46%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.519...-0.494) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 24 seconds
4. Rollout² 13/8 eq: -0.509 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 29.88% (G:7.32% B:0.37%)
70.12% (G:27.20% B:2.22%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.518...-0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 29 seconds
5. Rollout² 6/4* 4/1 eq: -0.509 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 30.71% (G:7.44% B:0.31%)
69.29% (G:29.16% B:2.50%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.519...-0.499) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 45 seconds
6. Rollout² 6/3 6/4* eq: -0.518 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent: 32.97% (G:6.68% B:0.37%)
67.03% (G:33.62% B:4.90%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.534...-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 00 second
7. Rollout² 13/11 8/5 eq: -0.539 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent: 29.83% (G:6.45% B:0.35%)
70.17% (G:29.11% B:3.21%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.549...-0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds
8. Rollout² 24/22 6/3 eq: -0.558 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent: 32.42% (G:7.47% B:0.38%)
67.58% (G:39.92% B:2.01%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.569...-0.547) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 20 seconds
9. Rollout² 6/1 eq: -0.567 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent: 28.12% (G:7.22% B:0.28%)
71.88% (G:28.56% B:2.18%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.576...-0.557) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 59 seconds

¹ 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50440673
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50440673
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Position of the Day 03-08-26
Stick -- Friday, 13 March 2026, at 6:32 p.m.
- Position of the Day 03-08-26
  John O'Hagan -- Friday, 13 March 2026, at 11:19 p.m.
- Position of the Day 03-08-26
  ah_clem -- Saturday, 14 March 2026, at 2:44 a.m.
- Position of the Day 03-08-26
  Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 14 March 2026, at 11:59 p.m.
- Position of the Day 03-08-26 - Rollout
  Stick -- Sunday, 15 March 2026, at 6:01 p.m.
  - PotD 03/08/26 - Four Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 19 March 2026, at 6:44 a.m.

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