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TG or no TG - Four Cube Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 19 March 2026, at 2:16 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 02-27-26 - TG or no TG - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 180
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ba--aBB-C--BbDabAA-bb-b---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.18% (G:29.11% B:3.01%) 69.60% (G:30.33% B:3.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.82% (G:5.48% B:0.24%) 30.40% (G:5.97% B:0.31%)
Cubeless Equities +0.668 +1.338
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.969 (-0.031)±0.012 (+0.957..+0.981)
Redouble/Take:+1.095 (+0.095)±0.023 (+1.072..+1.118)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants. Altogether, four positions with four different cube actions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 178
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ba--aBB-C--BbDabAA-bb--b--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 3pt is changed to her 2pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.29% (G:31.35% B:3.64%) 72.12% (G:32.31% B:3.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.71% (G:5.24% B:0.23%) 27.88% (G:5.47% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.741 +1.496
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.023±0.011 (+1.012..+1.034)
Redouble/Take:+1.286 (+0.263)±0.023 (+1.263..+1.309)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.023)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 8.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62996457
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 51 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 180
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ba-Ba-B-C--BbDabAA-bb-b---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Blue's 5pt is changed to his 3pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.65% (G:30.61% B:4.13%) 64.57% (G:31.00% B:4.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.35% (G:8.07% B:0.43%) 35.43% (G:8.35% B:0.45%)
Cubeless Equities +0.555 +1.114
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.812 (-0.014)±0.007 (+0.804..+0.819)
Redouble/Take:+0.826±0.012 (+0.814..+0.839)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.174)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64333447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:97.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 180
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ba--a-D-C--BbDabAA-bb-b---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 5pt checkers are back on his 6pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.94% (G:23.80% B:2.45%) 64.01% (G:24.20% B:2.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.06% (G:8.33% B:0.34%) 35.99% (G:8.19% B:0.32%)
Cubeless Equities +0.455 +0.927
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.721±0.015 (+0.706..+0.736)
Redouble/Take:+0.647 (-0.074)±0.023 (+0.625..+0.670)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.279)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91674464
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 33 minutes 15 seconds

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