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Bot Battle #122 - Four Cube Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 19 March 2026, at 4:59 p.m.

In Response To: Bot Battle #122 Rollout (Jason Lee)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 180
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ba--aBB-C--BbDabAA-bb-b---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.18% (G:29.11% B:3.01%) 69.60% (G:30.33% B:3.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.82% (G:5.48% B:0.24%) 30.40% (G:5.97% B:0.31%)
Cubeless Equities +0.668 +1.338
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.969 (-0.031)ą0.012 (+0.957..+0.981)
Redouble/Take:+1.095 (+0.095)ą0.023 (+1.072..+1.118)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds

Above is Jason's rollout of the original position.

Below are four variants. Altogether, five positions with five different cube actions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--CBC-C--A-B-a-bcbbb--aA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 3pt checkers are back on her 7pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 53.04% (G:25.33% B:0.60%) 53.01% (G:26.10% B:0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.96% (G:14.76% B:1.02%) 46.99% (G:14.47% B:0.97%)
Cubeless Equities +0.162 +0.345
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.217±0.015 (+0.202..+0.231)
Double/Beaver:-0.009 (-0.226)±0.037 (-0.046..+0.028)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.783)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64333447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 42 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--CBC-C--A-B-a-babbb-baA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 3pt is changed to her 2pt

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.75% (G:34.52% B:0.47%) 57.41% (G:35.21% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.25% (G:12.31% B:0.94%) 42.59% (G:12.23% B:0.91%)
Cubeless Equities +0.352 +0.748
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.476±0.012 (+0.463..+0.488)
Double/Take:+0.440 (-0.036)±0.017 (+0.423..+0.457)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.524)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91674464
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 15 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--C-CBC--A-B-a-babbbb-aA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 5pt is changed to his 7pt

Analyzed in 2-ply No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:64.75% (G:39.05% B:0.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances:35.25% (G:7.67% B:0.45%)
Cubeless Equities +0.611 +1.227
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.674 (-0.304)
Double/Take:+0.978
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.022)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-C-C-C--A-B-a-babbbb-aA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: Blue's 5pt is changed to his 2pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.08% (G:43.54% B:0.80%) 74.36% (G:43.63% B:0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.92% (G:6.83% B:0.49%) 25.64% (G:6.78% B:0.47%)
Cubeless Equities +0.852 +1.717
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.036±0.008 (+1.028..+1.044)
Redouble/Take:+1.523 (+0.487)±0.015 (+1.508..+1.538)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.036)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8268953
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 20 seconds

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