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TG? Rollout Fun - Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 19 March 2026, at 8:33 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-12-26 - TG? - Rollout Fun (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---aCDBB---cB---aabbbbAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.76% (G:35.33% B:3.89%) 65.81% (G:35.81% B:3.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.24% (G:9.78% B:0.59%) 34.19% (G:9.84% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities +0.604 +1.218
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.818 (-0.135)±0.011 (+0.807..+0.828)
Redouble/Take:+0.952±0.020 (+0.933..+0.972)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.048)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are four variants. Altogether five positions with five different cube actions.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---aADBB--BcB---aabbbbAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Two Blue 5pt checkers are on his 11pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 55.40% (G:21.21% B:1.82%) 55.54% (G:21.60% B:1.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.60% (G:17.29% B:1.33%) 44.46% (G:17.30% B:1.39%)
Cubeless Equities +0.152 +0.318
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.378±0.007 (+0.372..+0.385)
Redouble/Beaver:-0.008 (-0.386)±0.022 (-0.030..+0.014)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.622)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 27.7%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50440673
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 54 minutes 02 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---aBDBB---cC---aabbbbAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Blue's 5pt spare is on his 13pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.30% (G:28.30% B:2.65%) 63.64% (G:28.30% B:2.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.70% (G:11.93% B:0.73%) 36.36% (G:11.88% B:0.71%)
Cubeless Equities +0.449 +0.915
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.694±0.012 (+0.682..+0.705)
Redouble/Take:+0.643 (-0.051)±0.022 (+0.621..+0.665)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.306)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8268953
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---aCCCB---cB---aabbbbAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 7pt spare is on his 8pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.12% (G:34.51% B:3.68%) 67.35% (G:35.62% B:3.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.88% (G:9.16% B:0.55%) 32.65% (G:9.57% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities +0.627 +1.279
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.858 (-0.142)±0.011 (+0.847..+0.869)
Redouble/Take:+1.025 (+0.025)±0.021 (+1.004..+1.047)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64333447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.1%
Duration: 10 minutes 18 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---aCDBB---cB---aadbb-AA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 3pt checkers are on her 6pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.48% (G:41.60% B:5.33%) 71.21% (G:43.82% B:5.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.52% (G:7.07% B:0.44%) 28.79% (G:7.86% B:0.55%)
Cubeless Equities +0.824 +1.675
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.019±0.012 (+1.007..+1.031)
Redouble/Take:+1.438 (+0.419)±0.021 (+1.417..+1.459)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.019)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 4.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91674464
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 50 seconds

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