PotD 03-09-26 - Six Variants

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PotD 03-09-26 - Six Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 22 March 2026, at 12:54 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-09-26 - Rollout (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 177

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--bBDaB--AcD---bbdAA----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 11/6 eq: +0.385
Player:
Opponent: 59.40% (G:14.46% B:0.47%)
40.60% (G:7.05% B:0.27%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+0.378...+0.392) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/8 eq: +0.367 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent: 59.01% (G:13.57% B:0.47%)
40.99% (G:6.95% B:0.26%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (+0.359...+0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
3. Rollout² 13/7* eq: +0.344 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 57.24% (G:18.33% B:0.92%)
42.76% (G:9.73% B:0.53%) Conf.: ą 0.018 (+0.325...+0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are six contrasting variants. Altogether, seven positions with seven different plays represented.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 179

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--bBDaB--AcD---d-dAA----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's two 7pt checkers are on her 8pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/7* eq: +0.475
Player:
Opponent: 60.15% (G:20.23% B:0.95%)
39.85% (G:8.85% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.456...+0.493) - [100.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 39 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/8 eq: +0.434 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 60.87% (G:14.26% B:0.51%)
39.13% (G:7.06% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.419...+0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 29 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 21/20 11/6 eq: +0.427 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent: 60.62% (G:15.39% B:0.53%)
39.38% (G:7.41% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.413...+0.442) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 59 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/20 6/1* eq: +0.417 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent: 59.70% (G:16.78% B:0.50%)
40.30% (G:7.83% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.401...+0.433) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 48 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/1* eq: +0.393 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent: 58.24% (G:20.06% B:0.67%)
41.76% (G:9.96% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.374...+0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 17 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91674464
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 179

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-b-BDaB--AcD---bbdAA----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 21pt is changed to her 22pt

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/8 eq: +0.469
Player:
Opponent: 61.01% (G:16.29% B:0.61%)
38.99% (G:6.93% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.460...+0.478) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 04 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 13/7* eq: +0.445 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 59.12% (G:21.20% B:1.16%)
40.88% (G:9.48% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.435...+0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 04 minutes
3. Rollout² 21/20 11/6 eq: +0.434 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 59.96% (G:17.47% B:0.63%)
40.04% (G:7.33% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.417...+0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
4. Rollout² 21/20 6/1* eq: +0.412 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent: 58.96% (G:17.47% B:0.61%)
41.04% (G:7.82% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.394...+0.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
5. Rollout² 8/7* 6/1* eq: +0.329 (-0.140)
Player:
Opponent: 56.59% (G:20.36% B:0.86%)
43.41% (G:10.81% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.309...+0.349) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8268953
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8268953
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 177

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--bBCaC--AcD---bbdAA----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: A Blue 6pt spare is back on his 8pt

1. Rollout¹ 20/15 8/7* eq: +0.433
Player:
Opponent: 59.88% (G:18.20% B:0.97%)
40.12% (G:9.84% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.424...+0.443) - [83.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 11/6 eq: +0.427 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent: 60.72% (G:13.74% B:0.47%)
39.28% (G:6.72% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.420...+0.435) - [14.9%]
Duration: 57 minutes 37 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/1* eq: +0.418 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 59.62% (G:18.43% B:0.67%)
40.38% (G:9.61% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.408...+0.429) - [1.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 21/16 8/7* eq: +0.417 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 59.41% (G:17.74% B:0.94%)
40.59% (G:9.90% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.406...+0.427) - [0.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes
5. Rollout² 13/7* eq: +0.400 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent: 58.72% (G:18.72% B:0.89%)
41.28% (G:9.67% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.381...+0.419) - [0.1%]
Duration: 22 minutes 01 second
6. Rollout² 21/20 13/8 eq: +0.366 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent: 58.91% (G:13.84% B:0.54%)
41.09% (G:7.12% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.351...+0.380) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 25 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50440673
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50440673
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 177

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--bBDaC--AcC---bbdAA----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: A Blue 13pt spare is on his 8pt

1. Rollout¹ 8/7* 6/1* eq: +0.449
Player:
Opponent: 59.46% (G:21.27% B:0.78%)
40.54% (G:9.29% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.435...+0.462) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 11/6 eq: +0.413 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 60.10% (G:15.26% B:0.48%)
39.90% (G:7.13% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.402...+0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 20/15 8/7* eq: +0.412 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent: 58.94% (G:19.50% B:1.01%)
41.06% (G:9.85% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.398...+0.426) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
4. Rollout² 21/16 8/7* eq: +0.397 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent: 58.36% (G:19.35% B:1.01%)
41.64% (G:9.71% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.379...+0.416) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
5. Rollout² 21/20 6/1* eq: +0.384 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent: 58.82% (G:16.55% B:0.42%)
41.18% (G:7.55% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.368...+0.400) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58 minutes 24 seconds
6. Rollout² 21/20 13/8 eq: +0.349 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent: 58.38% (G:15.24% B:0.60%)
41.62% (G:7.22% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.331...+0.366) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 18 seconds
7. Rollout² 13/7* eq: +0.334 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent: 56.78% (G:19.37% B:0.95%)
43.22% (G:9.64% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.315...+0.354) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64333447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64333447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 177

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--bBEaB--AcC---bbdAA----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 5: A Blue 13pt spare is on his 6pt

1. Rollout¹ 21/20 6/1* eq: +0.369
Player:
Opponent: 58.07% (G:17.05% B:0.47%)
41.93% (G:7.76% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.361...+0.377) - [97.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 11/6 eq: +0.358 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent: 58.26% (G:16.44% B:0.53%)
41.74% (G:7.74% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.351...+0.366) - [2.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
3. Rollout² 21/20 13/8 eq: +0.328 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 57.74% (G:15.62% B:0.55%)
42.26% (G:7.48% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.312...+0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 41 seconds
4. Rollout² 8/7* 6/1* eq: +0.280 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent: 55.28% (G:20.91% B:0.63%)
44.72% (G:10.86% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.263...+0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 02 seconds
5. Rollout² 13/7* eq: +0.266 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent: 54.89% (G:19.67% B:0.87%)
45.11% (G:10.11% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.249...+0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49 minutes 51 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34616135
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34616135
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 201

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a--bBDcB--AcD---bbbAA----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 6: Two White 6pt spares are back on her 18pt

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 eq: +0.335
Player:
Opponent: 55.66% (G:22.60% B:0.95%)
44.34% (G:9.16% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.324...+0.346) - [61.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 21/20 11/6 eq: +0.331 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent: 55.78% (G:22.23% B:0.82%)
44.22% (G:8.55% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.319...+0.343) - [26.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 21/20 13/8 eq: +0.328 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent: 55.87% (G:21.70% B:0.87%)
44.13% (G:8.47% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.316...+0.340) - [12.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
4. Rollout² 21/20 6/1* eq: +0.290 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent: 55.09% (G:20.26% B:0.60%)
44.91% (G:8.73% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.273...+0.307) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
5. Rollout³ 20/15 6/5 eq: +0.286 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent: 55.21% (G:19.96% B:0.84%)
44.79% (G:9.46% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.022 (+0.264...+0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
6. Rollout³ 21/16 6/5 eq: +0.283 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent: 54.80% (G:20.02% B:0.83%)
45.20% (G:9.56% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.264...+0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
7. Rollout³ 13/8 6/5 eq: +0.262 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent: 54.19% (G:20.76% B:0.90%)
45.81% (G:9.62% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.024 (+0.238...+0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62996473
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62996473
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62996473
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Position of the Day 03-09-26
Stick -- Saturday, 14 March 2026, at 6:26 p.m.
- Position of the Day 03-09-26
  Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 15 March 2026, at 12:35 a.m.
- Position of the Day 03-09-26
  John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 15 March 2026, at 6:04 p.m.
- Position of the Day 03-09-26 - Rollout
  Stick -- Monday, 16 March 2026, at 7:39 p.m.
  - PotD 03-09-26 - Six Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 22 March 2026, at 12:54 a.m.
- Position of the Day 03-09-26
  ah_clem -- Monday, 16 March 2026, at 9:10 p.m.

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