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Position of the Day 03-15-26 - Rollout - XG the fishcake

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 22 March 2026, at 2:24 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-15-26 (Stick)

Everyone in the responses took. This is one of those positions I knew would get worse and worse for the player being doubled as we go up the XG scale of 3 ply/4 ply/XGR/XGR +/XGR ++. XG has an issue accurately seeing far enough ahead in these types of positions. First, here's the analysis on varying non full rollout settings.

  • 3 ply: RT worth 0.796 (barely a double by .012)
  • 4 ply: RT worth 0.782 (barely a double by .017
  • XGR: RT worth 0.848
  • XGR+: RT worth 0.874
  • XGR++: RT worth 0.926

Now we move on to our default 3 ply/XGR rollout results and then a more robust rollout. With every step in strength we take the doubler's position becomes stronger. On this particular position I suppose you could argue it doesn't matter, everything has it as a DT. However for those folks who may look at the simple XG analysis and then try to store it in memory for later use of any similar positions, it makes quite a difference if this is barely a double or barely a take.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 70
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BBDBDa-----b-ab--bcbb--A-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.34% (G:3.55% B:0.06%) 77.25% (G:3.99% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.66% (G:5.34% B:0.04%) 22.75% (G:5.78% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.509 +1.055
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.855 (-0.126)±0.004 (+0.852..+0.859)
Redouble/Take:+0.982±0.005 (+0.977..+0.987)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.018)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds

Higher level rollout
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 70
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BBDBDa-----b-ab--bcbb--A-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.28% (G:3.49% B:0.05%) 77.55% (G:3.80% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.72% (G:5.29% B:0.05%) 22.45% (G:5.68% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.508 +1.066
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.855 (-0.136)±0.006 (+0.849..+0.861)
Redouble/Take:+0.991±0.008 (+0.983..+0.999)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.009)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: XG Roller++, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Gigantic
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:98.6%
Duration: 5 hours 59 minutes

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