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More TG or not TG - Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at 5:21 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-16-26 - More TG or not TG - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 83
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aACBCBB-----c-----Bcbbbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.91% (G:29.24% B:0.05%) 80.04% (G:32.44% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.09% (G:5.97% B:0.30%) 19.96% (G:7.16% B:0.40%)
Cubeless Equities +0.808 +1.700
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.908 (-0.092)±0.006 (+0.902..+0.913)
Redouble/Take:+1.599 (+0.599)±0.009 (+1.591..+1.608)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13.8 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are four variants. Altogether, five positions with five different cube actions.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 82
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aACBCCA-----c-----Bcbbbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A Blue 6pt checker is on his 5pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.68% (G:12.60% B:0.03%) 58.07% (G:12.63% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.32% (G:15.55% B:1.49%) 41.93% (G:15.72% B:1.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.109 +0.232
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.354±0.006 (+0.349..+0.360)
Redouble/Beaver:-0.047 (-0.401)±0.027 (-0.074..-0.019)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.646)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 27.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85430974
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBCBCAB-----c-----Bcbbbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A Blue 5pt checker is on his 1pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.56% (G:14.16% B:0.03%) 63.75% (G:14.38% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.44% (G:9.87% B:0.46%) 36.25% (G:10.12% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.310 +0.626
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.520±0.004 (+0.516..+0.524)
Redouble/Take:+0.498 (-0.022)±0.009 (+0.489..+0.507)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.480)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34616135
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCC-CBB-----c-----Bcbbbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Two Blue 3pt checkers are on his 1pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.43% (G:14.27% B:0.03%) 72.00% (G:13.55% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.57% (G:4.60% B:0.14%) 28.00% (G:4.76% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities +0.524 +1.053
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.726 (-0.200)±0.004 (+0.722..+0.730)
Redouble/Take:+0.926±0.009 (+0.918..+0.935)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.074)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50440673
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 82
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aACBCBB-----c----AAcbbbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: A Blue 18pt checker is on his 17pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 84.20% (G:34.49% B:0.07%) 85.02% (G:35.46% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 15.80% (G:3.98% B:0.17%) 14.98% (G:4.92% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities +0.988 +2.008
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.032±0.004 (+1.028..+1.035)
Redouble/Take:+1.924 (+0.892)±0.007 (+1.917..+1.931)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.032)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8268953
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds

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