OtB if I'm stuck on a position one of the things I might do is start creating variants. In my head I'm like 'oh, if this checker was here then I'd take' or 'if the opponent had the same amount of men in the zone but they were more diversified I'd pass' or 'I won't hit here because the race is so close but if I were up/down by X more pips it would swing my play' or or or...it's endless.
In creating these variants it might help properly weigh the position at hand. As we all see often here, Nack likes his variants too. Some positions are more prone to variants than others. A position similar to this came up OtB and I couldn't decide what was going on. While some changes made it obvious one way or another, it's always fascinating to me how much changes that are seemingly benign still effect a position to the extent they do.
Enough rambling, I've just tossed a bunch of variant rollouts below. I'm not going to break them down. Some are quite obvious though I still always take a glance to confirm my thoughts while others take a little more depth or digging to understand and others where we could still be scratching our heads as to why.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 63
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB--a------BAbcc-cc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.93% (G:9.43% B:0.02%) | 73.99% (G:9.49% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.07% (G:2.03% B:0.06%) | 26.01% (G:1.92% B:0.05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.552 | +1.110 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.685 (-0.309) | ±0.003 (+0.682..+0.688) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.994 | ±0.003 (+0.991..+0.998) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.006) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.9% |
| Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 64
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB-a-------BAbcc-cc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.39% (G:9.11% B:0.02%) | 64.72% (G:9.08% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.61% (G:3.12% B:0.09%) | 35.28% (G:2.91% B:0.08%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.347 | +0.711 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.452 (-0.101) | ±0.007 (+0.445..+0.459) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.553 | ±0.009 (+0.544..+0.562) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.447) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 21.1 seconds |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 65
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCBa--------BAbcc-cc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.15% (G:7.90% B:0.04%) | 59.65% (G:7.57% B:0.03%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.85% (G:3.33% B:0.10%) | 40.35% (G:3.22% B:0.08%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.228 | +0.472 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.341 | ±0.006 (+0.335..+0.347) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.296 (-0.045) | ±0.009 (+0.287..+0.304) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.659) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.1% |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 21.3 seconds |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 62
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB---a-----BAbcc-cc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.44% (G:8.82% B:0.02%) | 75.45% (G:8.52% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.56% (G:2.00% B:0.06%) | 24.55% (G:1.84% B:0.05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.557 | +1.151 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.606 (-0.394) | ±0.003 (+0.603..+0.609) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.025 (+0.025) | ±0.007 (+1.018..+1.032) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 17.1 seconds |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 68
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB--a------BAccc-cb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.38% (G:10.52% B:0.04%) | 75.50% (G:10.55% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.62% (G:1.80% B:0.04%) | 24.50% (G:1.65% B:0.04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.595 | +1.198 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.733 (-0.267) | ±0.004 (+0.729..+0.737) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.087 (+0.087) | ±0.006 (+1.081..+1.093) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 14.5 seconds |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 57
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB--a------BA-ccbcc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.14% (G:11.91% B:0.02%) | 75.48% (G:11.80% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.86% (G:1.44% B:0.03%) | 24.52% (G:1.42% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.607 | +1.226 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.714 (-0.286) | ±0.004 (+0.710..+0.718) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.103 (+0.103) | ±0.006 (+1.097..+1.110) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 11.3 seconds |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 121 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 63
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---ABBCBB-a------BAbcc-cc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.49% (G:15.17% B:0.03%) | 74.70% (G:15.17% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.51% (G:1.98% B:0.06%) | 25.30% (G:1.91% B:0.05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.621 | +1.253 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.759 (-0.241) | ±0.006 (+0.753..+0.764) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.117 (+0.117) | ±0.008 (+1.109..+1.124) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 21.8 seconds |
 
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 111 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 63
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB--a------ABbcc-cc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.80% (G:10.47% B:0.03%) | 72.84% (G:10.59% B:0.03%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.20% (G:2.31% B:0.06%) | 27.16% (G:2.18% B:0.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.537 | +1.081 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.654 (-0.300) | ±0.003 (+0.651..+0.657) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.954 | ±0.004 (+0.950..+0.958) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.046) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 109 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 63
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-A-BBBCB--a------BAbcc-cc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.21% (G:8.83% B:0.02%) | 75.28% (G:8.94% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.79% (G:2.00% B:0.05%) | 24.72% (G:1.74% B:0.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.572 | +1.155 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.699 (-0.249) | ±0.005 (+0.694..+0.704) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.948 | ±0.008 (+0.940..+0.956) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.052) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 14.6 seconds |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 66
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB--a------BAbccc-c-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.45% (G:11.18% B:0.04%) | 75.59% (G:11.11% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.55% (G:1.55% B:0.03%) | 24.41% (G:1.45% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.605 | +1.217 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.746 (-0.254) | ±0.005 (+0.741..+0.751) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.097 (+0.097) | ±0.007 (+1.090..+1.104) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 13.4 seconds |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 60
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB--a------BAbc-ccc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.15% (G:9.17% B:0.01%) | 74.20% (G:9.30% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.85% (G:1.87% B:0.05%) | 25.80% (G:1.84% B:0.05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.556 | +1.117 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.684 (-0.316) | ±0.003 (+0.681..+0.686) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.999 | ±0.004 (+0.996..+1.003) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.001) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 62.8% |
| Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 110 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 62
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--ABBBCB--a------BAbbd-cc-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.96% (G:8.58% B:0.02%) | 73.14% (G:8.43% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.04% (G:2.21% B:0.07%) | 26.86% (G:2.11% B:0.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.522 | +1.051 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No redouble: | +0.647 (-0.281) | ±0.005 (+0.642..+0.652) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.928 | ±0.006 (+0.922..+0.934) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.072) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 17.0 seconds |