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PotD 03-18-26 - Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 28 March 2026, at 12:14 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-18-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=baABB-C-C-A----a-cbcc-AAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.61% (G:38.45% B:4.85%) 61.52% (G:38.81% B:4.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.39% (G:10.03% B:0.71%) 38.48% (G:10.04% B:0.70%)
Cubeless Equities +0.558 +1.122
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.749 (-0.054)±0.013 (+0.736..+0.762)
Redouble/Take:+0.802±0.024 (+0.779..+0.826)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.198)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 50.3 seconds

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are four cube variants. Altogether, five positions with five different cube actions. (As usual, all variants involve a single change from the original position.)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=baABB-C-C------a-cbcc-ABA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Blue's 10pt checker is back on his 23pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.19% (G:27.45% B:3.00%) 51.22% (G:27.68% B:3.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.81% (G:14.79% B:0.92%) 48.78% (G:14.51% B:0.86%)
Cubeless Equities +0.171 +0.358
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.370±0.015 (+0.355..+0.385)
Redouble/Beaver:-0.054 (-0.424)±0.050 (-0.104..-0.004)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.630)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 28.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60183158
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 39 minutes 01 second
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=baABB-C-C-A----a-cbcc-A-B-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Blue's 23pt checker is back on his 24pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.67% (G:35.63% B:4.24%) 58.49% (G:35.81% B:4.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.33% (G:10.92% B:0.69%) 41.51% (G:10.97% B:0.71%)
Cubeless Equities +0.456 +0.911
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.653±0.015 (+0.638..+0.668)
Redouble/Take:+0.570 (-0.083)±0.023 (+0.547..+0.593)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.347)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91160055
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 40 minutes 09 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=baAB-BC-C-A----a-cbcc-AAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 4pt is changed to his 5pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.33% (G:39.98% B:5.24%) 64.40% (G:40.27% B:5.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.67% (G:8.98% B:0.62%) 35.60% (G:8.97% B:0.63%)
Cubeless Equities +0.643 +1.295
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.834 (-0.166)±0.007 (+0.827..+0.841)
Redouble/Take:+1.005 (+0.005)±0.012 (+0.993..+1.016)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36385414
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:77.9%
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=baABB-C-C-A----abc-cc-AAA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 7pt is changed to her 9pt

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.65% (G:46.47% B:6.58%) 70.84% (G:46.79% B:6.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.35% (G:7.10% B:0.52%) 29.16% (G:7.03% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.867 +1.753
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.033±0.015 (+1.018..+1.047)
Redouble/Take:+1.508 (+0.476)±0.023 (+1.485..+1.531)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.033)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89404077
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 43 minutes 07 seconds

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