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Nickel for your thoughts - Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 28 March 2026, at 6:32 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-19-26 - Nickel for your thoughts - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 182 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-a--D-C---cCba-a-e-bB--B:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20(2) 22/17* 6/1	eq: -0.107
	Player: Opponent: 46.41% (G:14.00% B:0.38%) 53.59% (G:13.44% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.121...-0.093) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20(2) 22/17*(2)	eq: -0.145 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 46.00% (G:12.04% B:0.40%) 54.00% (G:13.29% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.161...-0.129) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/20 Bar/15* 22/17*	eq: -0.201 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 46.11% (G:12.43% B:0.48%) 53.89% (G:19.49% B:1.27%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.217...-0.185) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are two variants where in each case a single checker has been moved from the original position. (Moreover, the same checker can be moved 2 pips to get from one variant to the other.) Three different best plays are represented.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 182 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-a--D-C---cCca-a-e-aB--B:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A White 4pt checker is on her 11pt

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 Bar/15* 22/17*	eq: +0.144
	Player: Opponent: 52.91% (G:17.40% B:0.83%) 47.09% (G:13.22% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.124...+0.164) - [100.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 04 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20(2) 22/17* 6/1	eq: +0.081 (-0.063)
	Player: Opponent: 50.18% (G:17.29% B:0.63%) 49.82% (G:10.78% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.063...+0.100) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 28 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/20 Bar/15* 6/1	eq: +0.070 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 50.19% (G:18.37% B:0.77%) 49.81% (G:13.59% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.051...+0.088) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 14 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 96086065 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 144 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 182 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-a--D-C---cCca-a-d-bB--B:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A White 6pt checker is on her 11pt

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20(2) 22/17*(2)	eq: -0.155
	Player: Opponent: 45.61% (G:11.55% B:0.36%) 54.39% (G:12.08% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.162...-0.147) - [99.3%] Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20(2) 22/17* 6/1	eq: -0.168 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 44.62% (G:13.48% B:0.36%) 55.38% (G:12.51% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.175...-0.161) - [0.7%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/20 Bar/15* 22/17*	eq: -0.237 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 45.30% (G:11.83% B:0.45%) 54.70% (G:18.37% B:1.13%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.254...-0.220) - [0.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 51 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89404077 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 89404077 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 03-19-26 - Nickel for your thoughts
  Stick -- Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at 8:47 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-19-26 - Nickel for your thoughts
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at 1:28 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-19-26 - Nickel for your thoughts
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at 4:12 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-19-26 - Nickel for your thoughts
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at 5:18 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-19-26 - Nickel for your thoughts
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at 6:35 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 03-19-26 - Nickel for your thoughts - Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 26 March 2026, at 4:07 a.m.
    • Nickel for your thoughts - Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 28 March 2026, at 6:32 p.m.