First and of least importance, the original problem. 14(2) ended up overtaking the play nobody considered. On XGR+ and ++ 18, 10 was best. Also (see below) if I had stopped the rollout after 216 trials XG deemed that play best with 100% confidence and 14(2) being a blunder! This is why, especially with the speed of modern computers, 1296 trials should be the bare minimum ... just in case.
It's actually quite fascinating to watch in real time because 18, 10 remains firmly in the lead for 600, 700, 800+ games. It's not til roughly game 900 that 14(2) nudges over 50%. If you'd like to see it yourself it's Seed 1 in XG.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BbD-B---bC-b-cBcb-B-a-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/14(2) | eq: -0.278 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.19% (G:5.94% B:0.22%)
57.81% (G:10.71% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.284...-0.271) - [99.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/18 22/10 | eq: -0.292 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.19% (G:7.93% B:0.33%)
57.81% (G:12.41% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.299...-0.285) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 22/18(2) 13/9(2) | eq: -0.295 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.03% (G:6.85% B:0.26%)
57.97% (G:12.75% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.302...-0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 22/18 13/9(3) | eq: -0.317 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.03% (G:6.93% B:0.28%)
57.97% (G:14.11% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.330...-0.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 18/10(2) | eq: -0.347 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.07% (G:6.98% B:0.26%)
58.93% (G:11.99% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.359...-0.335) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | 22/14 13/9(2) | eq: -0.420 (-0.142) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.05% (G:7.59% B:0.32%)
58.95% (G:21.56% B:0.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.434...-0.406) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BbD-B---bC-b-cBcb-B-a-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/18 22/10 | eq: -0.225 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.91% (G:7.96% B:0.33%)
57.09% (G:11.41% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.038 (-0.263...-0.187) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/14(2) | eq: -0.306 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.93% (G:5.78% B:0.20%)
58.07% (G:10.42% B:0.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.025 (-0.331...-0.281) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4.1 seconds |
|
| |
1 216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|