(Ill see your whopper w/cheese and raise...) Even though a strong cube was a reason for making the pure play, I said Id take this, ugh. 18 covers, 20 with 41 making the ace point.
                         |
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| XGID=a-ABBCB-----cB---bCcba-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.17% (G:29.35% B:0.38%) | 74.03% (G:31.59% B:0.51%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.83% (G:7.59% B:0.19%) | 25.97% (G:7.87% B:0.26%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.683 | +1.441 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.787 (-0.213) | ±0.007 (+0.779..+0.794) |
| Double/Take: | +1.245 (+0.245) | ±0.016 (+1.230..+1.261) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
If White flunks with the open 4 point. Double/Take
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| ||||
| XGID=a-BB-CC-----cB---bCcba-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.29% (G:23.56% B:0.30%) | 68.96% (G:24.93% B:0.37%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.71% (G:6.50% B:0.22%) | 31.04% (G:6.93% B:0.28%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.537 | +1.120 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.740 (-0.155) | ±0.009 (+0.731..+0.749) |
| Double/Take: | +0.895 | ±0.014 (+0.880..+0.909) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.105) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 36 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Hops out with 1-6, says Double/Take. Volatile enough I guess.
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| XGID=--ABBCBa----cB---bCcba-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.41% (G:18.74% B:0.29%) | 59.89% (G:20.15% B:0.40%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.59% (G:6.62% B:0.19%) | 40.11% (G:7.04% B:0.20%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.310 | +0.662 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.309 (-0.056) | ±0.009 (+0.301..+0.318) |
| Double/Take: | +0.365 | ±0.014 (+0.351..+0.379) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.635) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
If White hops out with 45, ND/Beaver
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| ||||
| XGID=--BB-CC--a--cB---bCcba-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 53.28% (G:12.98% B:0.21%) | 53.48% (G:13.49% B:0.24%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 46.72% (G:4.93% B:0.18%) | 46.52% (G:5.07% B:0.18%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.146 | +0.309 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.168 | ±0.008 (+0.159..+0.176) |
| Double/Beaver: | -0.062 (-0.230) | ±0.025 (-0.087..-0.037) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.832) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Beaver | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.6% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Beaver Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Enter w/ ace, cover with a 4 . Looks scarier both ways with the second blot but the strong board. Double/Take.
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| ||||
| XGID=-aABBCB-----cB---aCcbb-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.23% (G:21.93% B:0.51%) | 64.73% (G:23.13% B:0.55%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.77% (G:12.05% B:0.28%) | 35.27% (G:12.02% B:0.34%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.386 | +0.816 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.498 (-0.082) | ±0.013 (+0.485..+0.510) |
| Double/Take: | +0.579 | ±0.020 (+0.559..+0.600) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.421) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 24 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Entering 31 , a take even blotty on the other side. D/T
 |
| ||||
| XGID=-aABBCB-----cB---bCbbaac--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.25% (G:23.91% B:0.64%) | 66.57% (G:25.84% B:0.72%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.75% (G:10.81% B:0.31%) | 33.43% (G:10.89% B:0.33%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.460 | +0.969 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.657 (-0.079) | ±0.011 (+0.646..+0.667) |
| Double/Take: | +0.736 | ±0.015 (+0.721..+0.751) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.264) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 36 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release