Lost in multiple choices - Seven Variants

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Lost in multiple choices - Seven Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 10 April 2026, at 6:06 a.m.

In Response To: Lost in multiple choices ? - Rollout (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b---BF-D--Ab-a--b-ccb--B-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.348
Player:
Opponent: 45.09% (G:15.39% B:1.06%)
54.91% (G:18.57% B:1.10%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.354...-0.342) - [81.4%]
Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq: -0.352 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent: 44.35% (G:14.68% B:0.78%)
55.65% (G:16.41% B:0.81%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.357...-0.346) - [18.6%]
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
3. Rollout² 24/22(2) eq: -0.417 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent: 41.66% (G:11.98% B:0.45%)
58.34% (G:12.07% B:0.49%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.426...-0.408) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35.9 seconds
4. Rollout² 6/4(2) eq: -0.447 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent: 41.27% (G:14.37% B:1.00%)
58.73% (G:18.84% B:1.07%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.457...-0.436) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32.6 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of pierrez's original position. (I would have copied pierrez's rollout, which showed more candidates, but there was a problem with the diagram.)
Below are seven variants, which represent seven different best plays.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b---BF-D--Ab----b-cdb--B-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 11pt checker is on her 5pt

1. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.225
Player:
Opponent: 49.37% (G:16.06% B:0.94%)
50.63% (G:17.85% B:1.11%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.230...-0.219) - [99.9%]
Duration: 4 hours 43 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 11/10 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.237 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 48.91% (G:15.74% B:0.98%)
51.09% (G:17.67% B:1.17%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.243...-0.232) - [0.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 40 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq: -0.242 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 47.98% (G:15.30% B:0.74%)
52.02% (G:15.50% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.247...-0.236) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 23 minutes
4. Rollout² 6/4(2) eq: -0.380 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent: 43.57% (G:14.46% B:0.78%)
56.43% (G:18.16% B:1.16%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.391...-0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 47 seconds
5. Rollout² 24/22(2) eq: -0.398 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent: 42.49% (G:11.16% B:0.33%)
57.51% (G:11.33% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.408...-0.388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 51 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6348218
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6348218
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b---BF-D--Ab-b--b-cbb--B-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 5pt checker is back on her 11pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.407
Player:
Opponent: 42.86% (G:16.16% B:1.03%)
57.14% (G:19.37% B:1.03%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.424...-0.391) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.449 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 41.69% (G:14.24% B:1.11%)
58.31% (G:18.36% B:1.06%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.461...-0.436) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) eq: -0.475 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent: 39.44% (G:11.51% B:0.52%)
60.56% (G:12.05% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.486...-0.464) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7(2) eq: -0.479 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent: 41.37% (G:14.51% B:1.40%)
58.63% (G:20.34% B:1.06%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.492...-0.465) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
5. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq: -0.481 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent: 40.00% (G:13.96% B:0.85%)
60.00% (G:17.38% B:0.78%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.496...-0.466) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes
6. Rollout¹ 11/10 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.482 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent: 40.47% (G:14.10% B:1.23%)
59.53% (G:18.96% B:1.22%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.496...-0.468) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 323209
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b---BF-D-A-b-a--b-ccb--B-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 11pt checker is on his 10pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq: -0.367
Player:
Opponent: 43.97% (G:14.68% B:0.76%)
56.03% (G:16.95% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.373...-0.362) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 43 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.384 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 43.88% (G:14.97% B:1.14%)
56.12% (G:18.77% B:1.23%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.390...-0.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 11 minutes
3. Rollout² 10/9 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.406 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent: 43.27% (G:14.31% B:1.17%)
56.73% (G:18.70% B:1.19%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.417...-0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 18 seconds
4. Rollout² 24/22(2) eq: -0.421 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent: 41.80% (G:11.82% B:0.44%)
58.20% (G:11.95% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.430...-0.411) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 09 seconds
5. Rollout² 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.498 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent: 42.17% (G:15.01% B:1.26%)
57.83% (G:24.14% B:1.30%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.510...-0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 41 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81747672
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81747672
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b---BF-D--Ab-a--bbcc---B-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 7: White's 4pt is changed to her 7pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7(2) eq: -0.410
Player:
Opponent: 43.00% (G:14.19% B:0.96%)
57.00% (G:17.78% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.416...-0.405) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 25 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.425 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 42.66% (G:14.82% B:1.00%)
57.34% (G:18.73% B:1.09%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.431...-0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 03 minutes
3. Rollout² 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.497 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent: 39.94% (G:13.43% B:0.85%)
60.06% (G:17.98% B:1.05%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.509...-0.485) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 08 seconds
4. Rollout² 11/10 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.524 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent: 39.43% (G:13.09% B:0.87%)
60.57% (G:18.41% B:1.17%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.536...-0.512) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 05 seconds
5. Rollout² 24/22(2) eq: -0.526 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent: 38.28% (G:11.13% B:0.42%)
61.72% (G:12.14% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.537...-0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 04 seconds
6. Rollout² 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq: -0.528 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent: 38.54% (G:12.73% B:0.76%)
61.46% (G:17.00% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.543...-0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 46 seconds
7. Rollout² 24/23 11/10 8/7(2) eq: -0.533 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent: 39.31% (G:12.84% B:0.90%)
60.69% (G:19.94% B:1.16%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.546...-0.521) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 44 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82954091
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82954091
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b---BF-D--A--a--bbccb--B-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 5: White's 13pt is changed to her 7pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) eq: -0.621
Player:
Opponent: 34.91% (G:7.75% B:0.28%)
65.09% (G:12.41% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.630...-0.612) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 37 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq: -0.657 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent: 35.14% (G:8.78% B:0.38%)
64.86% (G:17.17% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.668...-0.647) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/4 eq: -0.660 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent: 35.32% (G:9.20% B:0.48%)
64.68% (G:23.24% B:2.08%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.670...-0.650) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
4. Rollout¹ 11/10 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.676 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent: 34.82% (G:9.84% B:0.52%)
65.18% (G:21.07% B:1.46%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.686...-0.665) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
5. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.688 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent: 34.29% (G:9.78% B:0.52%)
65.71% (G:20.62% B:1.35%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.700...-0.675) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3851634
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b---BF-D--Ab-a--b-eab--B-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 6: Two White 5pt checkers are back on her 6pt

1. Rollout¹ 11/10 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.085
Player:
Opponent: 52.88% (G:18.37% B:1.63%)
47.12% (G:15.49% B:0.94%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.090...-0.079) - [50.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 34 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.085 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent: 53.26% (G:18.32% B:1.49%)
46.74% (G:15.85% B:0.91%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.089...-0.080) - [49.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 39 minutes
3. Rollout² 24/23(2) 8/7(2) eq: -0.113 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent: 52.25% (G:16.94% B:1.09%)
47.75% (G:14.03% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.124...-0.102) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
4. Rollout² 8/7(2) 6/4 eq: -0.128 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent: 52.26% (G:18.35% B:1.63%)
47.74% (G:17.27% B:1.45%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.139...-0.117) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
5. Rollout² 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.134 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent: 52.10% (G:18.34% B:1.48%)
47.90% (G:17.72% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.147...-0.122) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes

¹ 7000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22437604
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22437604
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aa---BF-D--Ab-a--b-ccb--B-:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: A White 24pt checker is on the bar

1. Rollout¹ 6/4(2) eq: -0.130
Player:
Opponent: 49.78% (G:23.00% B:1.25%)
50.22% (G:16.46% B:1.02%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.140...-0.120) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 23 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/7(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.254 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent: 47.14% (G:18.87% B:1.17%)
52.86% (G:17.51% B:1.05%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.264...-0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 40 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.287 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent: 46.61% (G:17.90% B:1.49%)
53.39% (G:19.07% B:0.95%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.299...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 33 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 11/10 8/7(2) 6/5 eq: -0.297 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent: 46.07% (G:18.29% B:1.09%)
53.93% (G:18.00% B:1.12%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.307...-0.287) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 58 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) eq: -0.329 (-0.199)
Player:
Opponent: 44.30% (G:14.06% B:0.55%)
55.70% (G:12.30% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.338...-0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 50 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94800089
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Lost in multiple choices ?
pierrez -- Thursday, 2 April 2026, at 6:51 a.m.
- Lost in multiple choices ?
  Francesco -- Thursday, 2 April 2026, at 8:31 a.m.
- Lost in multiple choices ?
  John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 2 April 2026, at 12:54 p.m.
- Lost in multiple choices ?
  ah_clem -- Thursday, 2 April 2026, at 5:12 p.m.
- Lost in multiple choices ?
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 2 April 2026, at 7:26 p.m.
- Lost in multiple choices ? - Rollout
  Stick -- Saturday, 4 April 2026, at 9:21 p.m.
  - Lost in multiple choices ? - Rollout with more moves
    pierrez -- Sunday, 5 April 2026, at 4:30 p.m.
    - Lost in multiple choices ? - Rollout with more moves
      OpenWheel -- Monday, 6 April 2026, at 3:26 p.m.
    - Lost in multiple choices ? - Rollout with more moves
      Stick -- Monday, 6 April 2026, at 8:15 p.m.
  - Lost in multiple choices - Seven Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 10 April 2026, at 6:06 a.m.

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