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Position of the Day 04-06-26 - Rollout - Almost Nack'ed!

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 10 April 2026, at 8:17 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-06-26 (Stick)

I don't think anyone made the 9pt which XG prefers for unlimited games. Checking for John O'Hagan I tossed on the dmp rollout and that making the 4pt is correct. Given that I thought we had a shot at the Nack Ballard 4 score position so on to Gammon Go where the plays are in a virtual deadlock after 5k. I would have extended it if needed but Gammon Save broke the possibility of the quadfecta. All rollouts below.

• Unlimited: 13/9 11/9


• DMP: 8/4 6/4


• Gammon Go: 13/11 9/5* or 8/4 6/4 (TCTC)


• Gammon Save: 13/9 11/9

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-CA-AdC---c-b-bB-b-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	13/9 11/9	eq: -0.112
	Player: Opponent: 47.01% (G:10.09% B:0.36%) 52.99% (G:11.46% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.119...-0.106) - [95.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/7 9/7	eq: -0.120 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 46.99% (G:9.96% B:0.32%) 53.01% (G:11.30% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.126...-0.114) - [5.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds
3.	Rollout2	8/4 6/4	eq: -0.155 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 46.77% (G:13.06% B:0.51%) 53.23% (G:17.03% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.169...-0.140) - [0.0%] Duration: 52.9 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/11 9/5*	eq: -0.162 (-0.049)
	Player: Opponent: 46.80% (G:13.09% B:0.52%) 53.20% (G:17.22% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.179...-0.144) - [0.0%] Duration: 56.9 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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DMP

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142 1 point match pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-CA-AdC---c-b-bB-b-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	8/4 6/4	eq: -0.044
	Player: Opponent: 47.78% (G:12.17% B:1.18%) 52.22% (G:22.53% B:1.41%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.048...-0.041) - [99.8%] Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/9 11/9	eq: -0.052 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 47.40% (G:9.67% B:0.77%) 52.60% (G:15.20% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.055...-0.049) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
3.	Rollout1	11/7 9/7	eq: -0.053 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 47.37% (G:10.02% B:0.58%) 52.63% (G:15.00% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.056...-0.049) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/11 9/5*	eq: -0.055 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 47.24% (G:12.63% B:1.18%) 52.76% (G:22.59% B:1.71%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.059...-0.051) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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Gammon Go

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 142 2 point match Crawford pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-CA-AdC---c-b-bB-b-:0:0:1:42:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	13/11 9/5*	eq: +0.216
	Player: Opponent: 46.95% (G:13.87% B:0.88%) 53.05% (G:23.67% B:2.07%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.212...+0.220) - [61.2%] Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4 6/4	eq: +0.216 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 47.43% (G:13.35% B:1.02%) 52.57% (G:21.80% B:1.60%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.212...+0.219) - [38.8%] Duration: 2 minutes 52 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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Gammon Save

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142 2 point match Crawford pip: 157 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-CA-AdC---c-b-bB-b-:0:0:1:42:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	13/9 11/9	eq: -0.269
	Player: Opponent: 45.90% (G:9.81% B:0.73%) 54.10% (G:9.34% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.271...-0.267) - [99.7%] Duration: 4 minutes 26 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/7 9/7	eq: -0.273 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 45.73% (G:10.05% B:0.74%) 54.27% (G:9.38% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.275...-0.271) - [0.3%] Duration: 4 minutes 28 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller