Quads - Five best plays

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Quads - Five best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 12 April 2026, at 6:39 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-02-26 - Quads - Rollout (Rollout Vomit) (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----BbD-B---bC-b-cBcb-B-a-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 22/14(2) eq: -0.278
Player:
Opponent: 42.19% (G:5.94% B:0.22%)
57.81% (G:10.71% B:0.22%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.284...-0.271) - [99.6%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 22/18 22/10 eq: -0.292 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 42.19% (G:7.93% B:0.33%)
57.81% (G:12.41% B:0.30%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.299...-0.285) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds
3. Rollout² 22/18(2) 13/9(2) eq: -0.295 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 42.03% (G:6.85% B:0.26%)
57.97% (G:12.75% B:0.28%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.302...-0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds
4. Rollout² 22/18 13/9(3) eq: -0.317 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 42.03% (G:6.93% B:0.28%)
57.97% (G:14.11% B:0.25%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.330...-0.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 01 second
5. Rollout² 18/10(2) eq: -0.347 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent: 41.07% (G:6.98% B:0.26%)
58.93% (G:11.99% B:0.36%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (-0.359...-0.335) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
6. Rollout² 22/14 13/9(2) eq: -0.420 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent: 41.05% (G:7.59% B:0.32%)
58.95% (G:21.56% B:0.57%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.434...-0.406) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are four variants; in each case, one or two White 5pt checkers are moved to a nearby point. Altogether, five positions with five different best plays. (A sixth play, 22/14 13/9(2), is within .002 of best.)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----BbD-B---bC-b-cBc-bB-a-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 5pt is changed to her 4pt

1. Rollout¹ 22/18 22/10 eq: -0.260
Player:
Opponent: 42.45% (G:7.07% B:0.26%)
57.55% (G:11.26% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.267...-0.254) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 22/14(2) eq: -0.275 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent: 42.41% (G:6.50% B:0.25%)
57.59% (G:11.10% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.281...-0.268) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 18/10(2) eq: -0.275 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 42.78% (G:7.46% B:0.29%)
57.22% (G:11.82% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.282...-0.268) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 22/18(2) 13/9(2) eq: -0.277 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 42.39% (G:6.93% B:0.27%)
57.61% (G:12.49% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.284...-0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
5. Rollout² 18/14(2) 13/9(2) eq: -0.287 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 42.43% (G:7.59% B:0.28%)
57.57% (G:12.33% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.300...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 04 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6348218
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6348218
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----BbD-B---bC-b-cBca-B-b-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: One White 5pt checker is on her 1pt

1. Rollout¹ 18/10(2) eq: -0.261
Player:
Opponent: 43.64% (G:7.53% B:0.29%)
56.36% (G:12.84% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.275...-0.247) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 09 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 18/14(2) 13/9(2) eq: -0.310 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent: 42.61% (G:7.72% B:0.31%)
57.39% (G:14.49% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.323...-0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 20 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 22/14(2) eq: -0.312 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent: 41.37% (G:6.48% B:0.23%)
58.63% (G:12.20% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.324...-0.299) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 18 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq: -0.320 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent: 42.91% (G:9.37% B:0.34%)
57.09% (G:16.99% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.333...-0.307) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 42 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 22/18 22/10 eq: -0.326 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent: 41.18% (G:7.48% B:0.28%)
58.82% (G:13.26% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.339...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 26 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 22/18 13/9(3) eq: -0.328 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent: 42.48% (G:7.83% B:0.30%)
57.52% (G:16.07% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.341...-0.314) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 12 seconds
7. Rollout¹ 13/9(3) 6/2 eq: -0.338 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent: 41.96% (G:8.91% B:0.29%)
58.04% (G:15.89% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.351...-0.324) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 59 seconds
8. Rollout¹ 18/14(2) 6/2(2) eq: -0.340 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent: 41.91% (G:8.04% B:0.33%)
58.09% (G:15.21% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.352...-0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 14 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10396839
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----BbD-B---bC-b-cBc--B-c-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's two 5pt checkers are on her 1pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq: +0.009
Player:
Opponent: 50.92% (G:11.88% B:0.44%)
49.08% (G:12.92% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.002...+0.016) - [95.4%]
Duration: 44 minutes 32 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 18/10(2) eq: +0.001 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 50.52% (G:9.43% B:0.38%)
49.48% (G:10.14% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.006...+0.008) - [4.6%]
Duration: 45 minutes 19 seconds
3. Rollout² 18/14(2) 13/9(2) eq: -0.015 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 50.17% (G:9.51% B:0.40%)
49.83% (G:11.08% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.025...-0.006) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 08 seconds
4. Rollout³ 22/18 13/9(3) eq: -0.026 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 49.91% (G:9.56% B:0.38%)
50.09% (G:12.53% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.040...-0.012) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 44 seconds
5. Rollout³ 13/9(3) 6/2 eq: -0.036 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent: 49.77% (G:10.89% B:0.40%)
50.23% (G:12.60% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.050...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 55 seconds
6. Rollout³ 18/14(2) 6/2(2) eq: -0.043 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent: 49.33% (G:11.01% B:0.39%)
50.67% (G:11.70% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.057...-0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 35 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 323209
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 323209
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 323209
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 145

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=----BbD-B---bC-b-eBc--B-a-:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's two 5pt checkers are on her 8pt

1. Rollout¹ 22/18 13/9(3) eq: -0.124
Player:
Opponent: 47.05% (G:7.60% B:0.28%)
52.95% (G:11.29% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.130...-0.118) - [64.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 22/14 13/9(2) eq: -0.126 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent: 47.42% (G:7.99% B:0.32%)
52.58% (G:13.34% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.132...-0.119) - [34.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq: -0.133 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent: 46.98% (G:9.62% B:0.37%)
53.02% (G:12.62% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.140...-0.126) - [1.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 22/14 6/2(2) eq: -0.143 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent: 46.79% (G:8.74% B:0.32%)
53.21% (G:13.20% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.149...-0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
5. Rollout² 18/10(2) eq: -0.158 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 46.31% (G:7.47% B:0.27%)
53.69% (G:10.96% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.172...-0.143) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 22 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69587191
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69587191
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller