Anchor out? - Variants

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Anchor out? - Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 13 April 2026, at 3:44 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-30-26 - Anchor out? - Rollout (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 119

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---CBBBA----cBb--dAbBbb---:2:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 18/15 eq: -0.611
Player:
Opponent: 33.73% (G:4.02% B:0.10%)
66.27% (G:4.16% B:0.11%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.615...-0.607) - [72.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 23 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 20/18 3/2 eq: -0.613 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent: 34.46% (G:3.53% B:0.09%)
65.54% (G:8.42% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.617...-0.609) - [28.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 59 seconds
3. Rollout² 20/18 7/6 eq: -0.621 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent: 33.77% (G:3.20% B:0.07%)
66.23% (G:7.78% B:0.17%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.626...-0.616) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds
4. Rollout² 18/16 7/6 eq: -0.623 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent: 33.54% (G:4.12% B:0.09%)
66.46% (G:4.23% B:0.13%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.629...-0.617) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds
5. Rollout³ 18/16 3/2 eq: -0.626 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 33.73% (G:5.19% B:0.13%)
66.27% (G:5.90% B:0.24%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.633...-0.618) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.0 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are two variants. Altogether, three positions with three different best plays. (Whether and where to move the 18pt checker is the primary issue. Candidates with 7/6 appear to be slightly weaker versions of those with 3/2.)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---CBBBA----dBb--cAbBbb---:2:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A White 8pt spare is on her 13pt

1. Rollout¹ 20/18 3/2 eq: -0.521
Player:
Opponent: 37.93% (G:3.66% B:0.08%)
62.07% (G:6.90% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.525...-0.517) - [95.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 25 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 20/18 7/6 eq: -0.525 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent: 37.61% (G:3.48% B:0.07%)
62.39% (G:7.03% B:0.18%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.529...-0.522) - [5.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 18 seconds
3. Rollout² 18/15 eq: -0.565 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent: 35.63% (G:3.86% B:0.08%)
64.37% (G:3.66% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.573...-0.558) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds
4. Rollout² 18/16 7/6 eq: -0.570 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent: 35.43% (G:4.38% B:0.09%)
64.57% (G:4.06% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.577...-0.563) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 53 seconds
5. Rollout² 18/16 3/2 eq: -0.574 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent: 35.59% (G:4.83% B:0.11%)
64.41% (G:4.89% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.581...-0.566) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 43 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22437604
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22437604
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 115

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---CBBBA----cBb--dAbBb--b-:2:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 3pt is changed to her 1pt

1. Rollout¹ 18/16 3/2 eq: -0.605
Player:
Opponent: 34.23% (G:4.75% B:0.10%)
65.77% (G:4.97% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.610...-0.601) - [97.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 36 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 18/16 7/6 eq: -0.611 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent: 33.80% (G:4.25% B:0.10%)
66.20% (G:4.20% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.615...-0.607) - [2.9%]
Duration: 27 minutes 16 seconds
3. Rollout² 18/15 eq: -0.620 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent: 33.69% (G:4.65% B:0.10%)
66.31% (G:4.79% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.628...-0.612) - [0.1%]
Duration: 8 minutes 00 second
4. Rollout² 20/18 3/2 eq: -0.642 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent: 33.77% (G:4.34% B:0.10%)
66.23% (G:9.33% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.650...-0.635) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds
5. Rollout² 20/18 7/6 eq: -0.645 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 33.22% (G:3.90% B:0.10%)
66.78% (G:8.41% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.653...-0.638) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 32 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81066422
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81066422
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller