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Which part is easier ? - Rollout of the fake position
Posted By: pierrez In Response To: Which part is easier ? (pierrez)
Date: Thursday, 16 April 2026, at 12:15 p.m.
Ok guys. Someone unveiled the trap.
The idea was twofold :
Part 1 : to illustrate on a psychological side, how players at all levels are focussed on either strategical or tactical moves or both, but are globally blind. It is true that, usually, tactical moves don’t involve the total of checkers in play, but only a partial amount locally, when strategical moves highlight interaction of the checkers distribution on the whole board.
I guess it happened quite a few to the readers to start and complete a game in a tournament (not in a chouette) with only 14 checkers. I have never heard of a game played with 16 checkers but if someone knows a story.
Part 2 : Back to the fake position. If we assume that this position is in between these two,
White is Joueur 2
score: 0
pip: 126Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Joueur 1XGID=---ACaC-B--AdDA--baca-ba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63,53% (G:14,90% B:0,41%) 63,74% (G:15,58% B:0,46%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36,47% (G:7,80% B:0,29%) 36,26% (G:8,06% B:0,25%) Cubeless Equities +0,343 +0,704 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,499 ±0,010 (+0,488..+0,509) Double/Take: +0,464 (-0,035) ±0,016 (+0,448..+0,480) Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,501) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6,4% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 36 minutes 55 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
White is Joueur 2
score: 0
pip: 126Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 121
score: 0
Blue is Joueur 1XGID=---ACaC-C--AdCA--baca-ba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 68,63% (G:11,99% B:0,21%) 68,35% (G:15,60% B:0,32%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31,37% (G:4,45% B:0,12%) 31,65% (G:5,79% B:0,18%) Cubeless Equities +0,449 +0,933 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,659 (-0,050) ±0,008 (+0,651..+0,667) Double/Take: +0,709 ±0,012 (+0,697..+0,721) Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,291) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 26 minutes 09 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Obviously, the additional spare on the 8pt put Blue in Double territory, but does the 4th spare (in the fake position) on the 13pt add some value to the Blue equity ?
No doubt, if Blue can start a blitz, but unclear in the case of an exchange of hits are turning bad for Blue.
As to the take, it seems still a take, maybe less confortable.
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