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Position of the Day 04-19-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 24 April 2026, at 1:05 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-19-26 (Stick)

Well short of a cube here as 25% of our numbers fan when the opponent has enough men in the zone for a potential blitz combined with our three outfield blots. (not builders) Even if we were to button up our outfield and create a gapped six prime we still fall just short of a cube. See variant below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 135
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBB-CAAAbB---b-dc---bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.09% (G:17.01% B:1.18%) 62.17% (G:17.30% B:1.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.91% (G:19.50% B:0.89%) 37.83% (G:19.66% B:0.97%)
Cubeless Equities +0.220 +0.446
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.336±0.014 (+0.321..+0.350)
Double/Take:+0.174 (-0.162)±0.024 (+0.150..+0.197)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.664)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 51.8 seconds

Variant
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 134
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--BBB-CB-AbB---b-dc---bA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.67% (G:17.30% B:1.07%) 66.85% (G:17.74% B:1.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.33% (G:13.39% B:0.20%) 33.15% (G:13.33% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.381 +0.780
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.570±0.014 (+0.556..+0.584)
Double/Take:+0.562 (-0.008)±0.019 (+0.543..+0.580)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.430)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:75.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 50.1 seconds

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