While hitting in general and especially hitting off the high points in the early game especially when your opponent has made no new offensive points should be your default, in this specific situation your default should be make the nine point. If you got this particular problem correct by hitting be warned that the other 99% of the time this comes up you would get it wrong. (and it's often a larger error than shown here in the variants)
What makes this problem an exception is the combination of the opp's back checkers being three pips apart instead of the standard fours so that fours would be duplicated and the blot deep in his inner board. Change either one of these details as shown in the variants below and you'll see it goes back to 13/9 being correct.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 157 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 178
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--a--aE-BA--eD---c-d---BaA:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 9/5* | eq: -0.049 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.10% (G:13.99% B:0.60%)
50.90% (G:15.30% B:0.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.058...-0.040) - [98.5%]
Duration: 8 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 13/9 | eq: -0.063 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.61% (G:12.50% B:0.51%)
51.39% (G:13.81% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.070...-0.055) - [1.5%]
Duration: 7 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant #1 - Opp's back checkers are 4 pips apart instead of 3
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 178
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---aE-BA--eD---c-d---BaA:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 13/9 | eq: -0.049 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.88% (G:12.85% B:0.56%)
51.12% (G:13.92% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.057...-0.041) - [95.2%]
Duration: 6 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 9/5* | eq: -0.059 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.85% (G:14.19% B:0.58%)
51.15% (G:15.29% B:0.69%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.068...-0.050) - [4.8%]
Duration: 7 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant #2 - Opp's inner board blot is lifted
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 162 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 178
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--a--aE-BA--eD---c-e---B-A:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 13/9 | eq: -0.153 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.36% (G:11.42% B:0.45%)
53.64% (G:13.36% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.164...-0.141) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 9/5* | eq: -0.190 (-0.037) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.73% (G:12.23% B:0.51%)
54.27% (G:15.77% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.202...-0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant #3 - Both opp's back checkers are four pips apart and opp's inner board blot is lifted
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 163 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 178
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a---aE-BA--eD---c-e---B-A:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 13/9 | eq: -0.158 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.98% (G:11.51% B:0.42%)
54.02% (G:13.47% B:0.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.170...-0.147) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 9/5* | eq: -0.196 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.46% (G:12.36% B:0.45%)
54.54% (G:15.75% B:0.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.210...-0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|