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Ugly [64] - Five best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 27 April 2026, at 5:41 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-23-26 - Ugly [64] - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aBCCBb--cB---b-ebB-A--:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	21/11	eq: -0.242
	Player: Opponent: 43.82% (G:11.80% B:0.51%) 56.18% (G:15.30% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.258...-0.227) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2 6/2	eq: -0.277 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 42.03% (G:11.61% B:0.38%) 57.97% (G:12.02% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.292...-0.263) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
3.	Rollout1	7/1 6/2	eq: -0.294 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 41.40% (G:11.25% B:0.25%) 58.60% (G:12.12% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.309...-0.279) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/2 8/4*	eq: -0.308 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 42.32% (G:12.50% B:0.46%) 57.68% (G:15.91% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.326...-0.289) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Altogether, in this post are five positions with five different best plays represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aBCCBb--cB---b-dcB-A--:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A White 6pt spare is on her 5pt

1.	Rollout1	8/2 6/2	eq: -0.336
	Player: Opponent: 40.81% (G:10.97% B:0.35%) 59.19% (G:12.55% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.344...-0.328) - [98.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 58 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2 8/4*	eq: -0.348 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 41.33% (G:11.74% B:0.39%) 58.67% (G:16.65% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.356...-0.339) - [2.0%] Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
3.	Rollout2	7/1 6/2	eq: -0.374 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 39.85% (G:10.11% B:0.26%) 60.15% (G:12.88% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.387...-0.361) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 43 seconds
4.	Rollout2	21/11	eq: -0.381 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 41.11% (G:10.64% B:0.48%) 58.89% (G:17.74% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.397...-0.366) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 10 seconds
5.	Rollout2	8/2 7/3	eq: -0.394 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 39.61% (G:10.26% B:0.31%) 60.39% (G:13.33% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.408...-0.380) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 38 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34281090 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 34281090 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aBCCBb--bB---b-ebBaA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: The White 13pt spare is on her 3pt

1.	Rollout1	13/7 8/4*	eq: -0.194
	Player: Opponent: 45.30% (G:15.73% B:0.81%) 54.70% (G:19.19% B:0.97%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.206...-0.182) - [100.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 57 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/15 8/4*	eq: -0.232 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 45.06% (G:15.10% B:0.85%) 54.94% (G:24.79% B:2.56%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.242...-0.221) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 08 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/2 8/4*	eq: -0.232 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 44.73% (G:14.64% B:0.65%) 55.27% (G:18.99% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.244...-0.221) - [0.0%] Duration: 35 minutes 51 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/2 6/2	eq: -0.294 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 41.96% (G:12.88% B:0.45%) 58.04% (G:14.80% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.308...-0.280) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 07 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61075634 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61075634 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 145 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aBCCBb--cB---b-dbBaA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A White 6pt spare is on her 3pt

1.	Rollout1	21/15 8/4*	eq: -0.252
	Player: Opponent: 44.22% (G:14.79% B:0.72%) 55.78% (G:22.85% B:2.19%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.259...-0.244) - [95.5%] Duration: 51 minutes 52 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2 8/4*	eq: -0.262 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 43.42% (G:14.45% B:0.58%) 56.58% (G:17.64% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.270...-0.253) - [4.5%] Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
3.	Rollout2	21/11	eq: -0.296 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 43.10% (G:12.68% B:0.52%) 56.90% (G:17.95% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.311...-0.281) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 59 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/2 6/2	eq: -0.308 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 41.41% (G:12.16% B:0.39%) 58.59% (G:13.75% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.323...-0.294) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 66618975 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 66618975 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aBCCBb--cB---b-cbBbA--:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: Two White 6pt checkers are on her 3pt

1.	Rollout1	7/1 6/2	eq: -0.523
	Player: Opponent: 36.11% (G:9.01% B:0.19%) 63.89% (G:14.23% B:0.69%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.530...-0.516) - [85.4%] Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2.	Rollout1	21/11	eq: -0.529 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 37.64% (G:9.53% B:0.45%) 62.36% (G:21.46% B:1.12%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.536...-0.522) - [10.0%] Duration: 52 minutes 00 second
3.	Rollout1	8/2 6/2	eq: -0.531 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 36.29% (G:9.00% B:0.27%) 63.71% (G:14.39% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.537...-0.524) - [4.6%] Duration: 40 minutes 16 seconds
4.	Rollout2	8/2 7/3	eq: -0.578 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 35.26% (G:8.49% B:0.24%) 64.74% (G:14.78% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.590...-0.565) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 31 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17907430 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 17907430 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 04-23-26 - Ugly [64]
  Stick -- Friday, 24 April 2026, at 9:50 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 04-23-26 - Ugly [64]
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 24 April 2026, at 10:20 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 04-23-26 - Ugly [64]
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 25 April 2026, at 2:33 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 04-23-26 - Ugly [64]
    Francesco -- Saturday, 25 April 2026, at 6:07 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 04-23-26 - Ugly [64]
    mamabear -- Saturday, 25 April 2026, at 2:57 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 04-23-26 - Ugly [64]
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 April 2026, at 12:51 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 04-23-26 - Ugly [64] - Rollout
    Stick -- Sunday, 26 April 2026, at 12:00 p.m.
    • Ugly [64] - Five best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 27 April 2026, at 5:41 p.m.