While we have a monstrous racing lead we have no board yet. On top of that we have that ugly blot on the ace point. On top of that the opponent has made his five point. Sure, we rate to do something pretty good this turn but in the vast majority of situations the opponent has at least twenty good entering numbers. (entering and hitting, entering and making a second anchor) If the opponent does make a second anchor he seems at this point in the game to have the timing to play it.
See variants below where the blot on our ace point is lifted to the six point. Then we're much better off but still clearly short of a cube. Or when the opponent doesn't have his five point made. That's a much bigger difference and gets us to the borderline ND/D line. Even if the opponent didn't have his five point made and we were able to re-alive our checker on the ace point the opponent still has quite the comfortable take. This goes to show how under developed our position is in the original problem.
        
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 206 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aAca--D-CB-AdC---b-bbA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 56.79% (G:30.57% B:1.91%) | 56.70% (G:30.41% B:1.89%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 43.21% (G:8.86% B:0.47%) | 43.30% (G:9.06% B:0.48%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.367 | +0.723 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.482 | ±0.023 (+0.459..+0.504) |
| Double/Take: | +0.351 (-0.130) | ±0.027 (+0.324..+0.379) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.518) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.7% |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds |
Variant - Ace point blot lifted
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 206 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 143
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-ca--E-CB-AdC---b-bbA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.87% (G:30.40% B:2.36%) | 59.94% (G:30.56% B:2.34%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.13% (G:7.56% B:0.34%) | 40.06% (G:7.57% B:0.36%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.446 | +0.897 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.608 | ±0.015 (+0.593..+0.623) |
| Double/Take: | +0.552 (-0.055) | ±0.020 (+0.532..+0.572) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.392) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.0% |
| Rollout details |
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds |
Variant - Opp's five point unmade
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 210 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aAca--D-CB-AdC---c-c-A----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 60.51% (G:33.89% B:2.46%) | 60.53% (G:34.00% B:2.40%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 39.49% (G:7.00% B:0.33%) | 39.47% (G:7.13% B:0.33%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.500 | +1.000 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.676 | ±0.011 (+0.665..+0.687) |
| Double/Take: | +0.662 (-0.013) | ±0.014 (+0.648..+0.676) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.324) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.8% |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 92.9% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds |
Variant - combo of V1 + V2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 210 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 143
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=a-ca--E-CB-AdC---c-c-A----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.07% (G:33.96% B:2.94%) | 63.29% (G:34.19% B:3.11%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.93% (G:6.21% B:0.28%) | 36.71% (G:6.22% B:0.29%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.566 | +1.147 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.778 (-0.060) | ±0.021 (+0.757..+0.799) |
| Double/Take: | +0.838 | ±0.027 (+0.811..+0.865) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.162) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds |