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| XGID=aAca--D-CB-AdC---b-bbA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Original position | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 56.79% (G:30.57% B:1.91%) | 56.70% (G:30.41% B:1.89%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 43.21% (G:8.86% B:0.47%) | 43.30% (G:9.06% B:0.48%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.367 | +0.723 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.482 | ±0.023 (+0.459..+0.504) |
| Double/Take: | +0.351 (-0.130) | ±0.027 (+0.324..+0.379) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.518) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.7% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds | ||
Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are two cusp variants, each based on a single change.
The third variant extricates Blue's lone back checker around and covers his 11pt. It may seem surprising that this change has a significantly smaller impact than each of the first two.
Nack
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| XGID=aAca--D-CB-AdC---b-d-A----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Variant 1: The White 5pt checkers are on his 6pt | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.49% (G:33.93% B:2.45%) | 61.49% (G:34.17% B:2.46%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.51% (G:6.97% B:0.32%) | 38.51% (G:7.14% B:0.33%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.521 | +1.042 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.705 (-0.004) | ±0.012 (+0.694..+0.717) |
| Double/Take: | +0.710 | ±0.014 (+0.696..+0.723) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.290) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 91642967 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 66.8% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes | ||
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| XGID=a-ca--D-DB-BdB---b-bbA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Variant 2: The Blue 1pt checker is on his 11pt | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.67% (G:31.02% B:2.38%) | 61.78% (G:31.48% B:2.51%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.33% (G:6.71% B:0.30%) | 38.22% (G:6.72% B:0.30%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.497 | +1.011 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.685 (-0.002) | ±0.011 (+0.675..+0.696) |
| Double/Take: | +0.688 | ±0.015 (+0.672..+0.703) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.312) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 40767767 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 60.2% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes | ||
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| XGID=aAca--D-CB-BdC---b-bb-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Variant 3: Blue's 21pt checker has covered his 11pt | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.09% (G:33.43% B:2.24%) | 59.10% (G:33.18% B:2.16%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.91% (G:7.39% B:0.36%) | 40.90% (G:7.51% B:0.35%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.461 | +0.914 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.602 | ±0.022 (+0.581..+0.624) |
| Double/Take: | +0.554 (-0.049) | ±0.029 (+0.525..+0.582) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.398) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.8% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 295289 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.6% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 17 minutes 40 seconds | ||