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Position of the Day 04-27-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 1 May 2026, at 7:32 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 04-27-26 (Stick)

Often times I have the choice between what came up OtB and a variety of variants that pass through my head. In choosing I basically try to pick the one that I think more people will get wrong. Not only so I can sit back in my chair, stroke my cat (I don't have a cat), and chortle at your follies while I sip on my brandy but also it should mean more people learn something. This time I feel like I failed. Too many people got it right. I think if I had chosen the subtle variant below which swings a full tank of equity, I would have caught more fish.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BaBCC----a--B---A-AfdcA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.46% (G:14.86% B:0.53%) 65.93% (G:15.18% B:0.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.54% (G:17.27% B:0.04%) 34.07% (G:17.24% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.290 +0.605
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.577±0.012 (+0.565..+0.589)
Redouble/Take:+0.451 (-0.125)±0.021 (+0.430..+0.472)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.423)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 54.2 seconds

Variant
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BaCCB----a--B---A-AfdcA:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.71% (G:16.75% B:0.62%) 68.53% (G:17.33% B:0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.29% (G:16.03% B:0.06%) 31.47% (G:15.95% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.367 +0.779
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.622 (-0.031)±0.007 (+0.615..+0.630)
Redouble/Take:+0.653±0.015 (+0.637..+0.668)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.347)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second

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