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Position of the Day 04-29-26 - Rollout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 4 May 2026, at 8:18 a.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 04-29-26 (Stick)
If I were a serious backgammon player this is another problem I'd break down every little nook and cranny. Luckily I'm not so I can give you the lazy break down. (hey, I'm still doing more than you, don't give me any shit) The right answer will have to take at least three large pieces of the puzzle into consideration. Variant #1 would be a decent reference position to have memorized.
- The race lead (and length of race)
- The number of shots
- Our offensive set up for when we hit said shots
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 122
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BCC-Ba--cE--abacbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.36% (G:5.27% B:0.06%) | 66.52% (G:5.85% B:0.06%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.64% (G:1.03% B:0.02%) | 33.48% (G:1.12% B:0.04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.370 | +0.756 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.553 | ±0.007 (+0.546..+0.559) |
| Double/Take: | +0.520 (-0.033) | ±0.011 (+0.509..+0.531) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.447) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.4% |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 53.7 seconds |
Variant #1
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 121 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 120
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BCCB-a--bEa-abacbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.03% (G:5.05% B:0.06%) | 67.42% (G:5.59% B:0.08%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.97% (G:0.79% B:0.02%) | 32.58% (G:0.91% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.384 | +0.791 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.563 (0.000) | ±0.003 (+0.560..+0.566) |
| Double/Take: | +0.563 | ±0.006 (+0.558..+0.569) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.437) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 54.1% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 3 minutes 23 seconds |
Variant #2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 122
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BCBBAa--cE--abacbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.64% (G:5.39% B:0.06%) | 66.99% (G:5.74% B:0.06%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.36% (G:1.04% B:0.02%) | 33.01% (G:1.07% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.377 | +0.773 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.541 | ±0.003 (+0.537..+0.544) |
| Double/Take: | +0.538 (-0.003) | ±0.005 (+0.532..+0.543) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.459) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.6% |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 81.6% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 3 minutes 03 seconds |
Variant #3
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 121 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----CCBB---acE--abacbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.56% (G:3.74% B:0.03%) | 68.92% (G:4.43% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.44% (G:0.46% B:0.01%) | 31.08% (G:0.47% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.404 | +0.836 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.592 (-0.029) | ±0.006 (+0.586..+0.598) |
| Double/Take: | +0.621 | ±0.011 (+0.610..+0.631) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.379) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 44.3 seconds |
Variant #4
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 121 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----BCC-BA-acD--abacbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.66% (G:4.11% B:0.04%) | 68.95% (G:4.66% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.34% (G:0.55% B:0.01%) | 31.05% (G:0.65% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.409 | +0.839 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.601 (-0.024) | ±0.006 (+0.595..+0.607) |
| Double/Take: | +0.625 | ±0.009 (+0.616..+0.635) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.375) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 42.3 seconds |
Messages In This Thread
- Position of the Day 04-29-26
Stick -- Friday, 1 May 2026, at 7:35 a.m.
- Position of the Day 04-29-26
ah_clem -- Friday, 1 May 2026, at 1:23 p.m.
- Position of the Day 04-29-26
John O'Hagan -- Friday, 1 May 2026, at 1:26 p.m.
- Position of the Day 04-29-26
mamabear -- Friday, 1 May 2026, at 5:48 p.m.
- Position of the Day 04-29-26
Chuck Bower -- Friday, 1 May 2026, at 8:17 p.m.
- Position of the Day 04-29-26 - Rollout
Stick -- Monday, 4 May 2026, at 8:18 a.m.
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