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Position of the Day 05-01-26 - Last Roll Cube

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 4 May 2026, at 1:02 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-01-26 - Last Roll Cube (Stick)

If you redouble, you will win ~19.5 of the 20 hitters with the cube on 4. Ignoring g's, this will give you a profit of 12 points in 36 games. If you don't redouble, you'll need to win 21 games to net +12 points and I don't think that's possible. Blue will have to win all 20 of the hitters and 1 of the 16 non-hitters. 1/16 is over 6% and I don't think Blue's winning chances are 6% even after missing with 66.

I am ignoring both sides g chances but I doubt that's enough of a factor to make a difference. R/T.

Bg author Danny Kleinman wrote about this "doubling the difference from half" concept years ago. 19.5 is 1.5 over half so doubling the difference from half gives you 21 which is 3 over half.

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