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Position of the Day 05-01-26 - Last Roll Cube

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 4 May 2026, at 5:11 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-01-26 - Last Roll Cube (Stick)

If a true last roll position then obvious double. It is not quite a last roll position since opponent will have some small win chance after being hit (but you also have some small gammon chance), and you will have some small race chance after not cubing.

If you cube I think it will be about 19.5 wins equivalent (accounting for losses and your gammon wins) on the 20 hits and 0 otherwise due to opponent cashing. From the excess 18 math you would need to win the equivalent of 21 games from holding the cube.

If you hold the cube and miss you maintain a very small race chance which is helped a very tiny amount by the cube access and the non hitting roll not including an ace or a two. I estimate about 0.25 wins on the 16 misses. If you hit, you are slightly too good but I think it will be less than .5 games extra value from the gammon wins/losses obtained going for them.

Double/Take.

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