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Make up your mind II - Six best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 9 May 2026, at 5:29 a.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind II - Rollout (pierrez)

		White is Joueur 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-a---AD-E---cCb--d-eA---A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: -0,075
	Player: Opponent: 47,77% (G:13,13% B:0,49%) 52,23% (G:12,76% B:0,52%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,088...-0,062) - [66,2%] Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/7 8/5	eq: -0,080 (-0,005)
	Player: Opponent: 47,33% (G:13,73% B:0,51%) 52,67% (G:13,02% B:0,60%) Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,094...-0,066) - [29,8%] Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/23 8/5	eq: -0,090 (-0,015)
	Player: Opponent: 46,92% (G:12,41% B:0,46%) 53,08% (G:12,67% B:0,47%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,106...-0,075) - [4,0%] Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
4.	Rollout1	13/10 6/5	eq: -0,111 (-0,036)
	Player: Opponent: 46,92% (G:12,62% B:0,51%) 53,08% (G:13,18% B:0,61%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,124...-0,098) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes
5.	Rollout1	24/21 6/5	eq: -0,117 (-0,042)
	Player: Opponent: 46,77% (G:10,97% B:0,44%) 53,23% (G:12,73% B:0,43%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,130...-0,104) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 hours 18 minutes
6.	Rollout1	24/20	eq: -0,152 (-0,077)
	Player: Opponent: 44,72% (G:9,74% B:0,24%) 55,28% (G:7,27% B:0,28%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,165...-0,140) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is pierrez's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Altogether, six positions with six different best plays represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 155 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AC-EA--cCb--d-eA---A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A Blue 6pt spare is on his 9pt

1.	Rollout1	8/7 8/5	eq: -0.106
	Player: Opponent: 47.56% (G:13.65% B:0.55%) 52.44% (G:15.40% B:0.94%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.116...-0.095) - [91.7%] Duration: 2 hours 07 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 8/5	eq: -0.114 (-0.009)
	Player: Opponent: 47.10% (G:12.56% B:0.53%) 52.90% (G:14.37% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.121...-0.108) - [8.2%] Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
3.	Rollout2	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.135 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 46.57% (G:12.47% B:0.56%) 53.43% (G:14.34% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.150...-0.121) - [0.0%] Duration: 46 minutes 09 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/10 6/5	eq: -0.157 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 46.51% (G:12.06% B:0.56%) 53.49% (G:15.20% B:0.82%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.172...-0.141) - [0.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 47 seconds
5.	Rollout2	9/5	eq: -0.166 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 45.65% (G:11.50% B:0.47%) 54.35% (G:13.20% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.182...-0.150) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 54 seconds
6.	Rollout2	24/20	eq: -0.188 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 44.50% (G:9.95% B:0.28%) 55.50% (G:9.02% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.200...-0.175) - [0.0%] Duration: 35 minutes 24 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44874560 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44874560 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AD-D---cDb--d-eA---A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A Blue 8pt spare is on his 13pt

1.	Rollout1	13/10 6/5	eq: -0.105
	Player: Opponent: 47.40% (G:12.65% B:0.50%) 52.60% (G:13.84% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.113...-0.098) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.124 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 46.61% (G:12.36% B:0.45%) 53.39% (G:12.81% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.131...-0.116) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
3.	Rollout2	24/23 8/5	eq: -0.169 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 45.43% (G:11.84% B:0.44%) 54.57% (G:13.02% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.184...-0.155) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 05 seconds
4.	Rollout2	24/21 6/5	eq: -0.170 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 45.64% (G:10.52% B:0.42%) 54.36% (G:12.80% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.184...-0.156) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 17 seconds
5.	Rollout2	8/7 8/5	eq: -0.176 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 45.17% (G:13.05% B:0.48%) 54.83% (G:14.09% B:0.72%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.193...-0.159) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 00 second
6.	Rollout2	24/20	eq: -0.205 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 43.56% (G:9.22% B:0.26%) 56.44% (G:7.90% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.218...-0.192) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 42 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3581968 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3581968 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 143 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AD-E---cCb---deA---A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: The White 8pt checkers are on her 7pt

1.	Rollout1	24/21 6/5	eq: -0.173
	Player: Opponent: 45.59% (G:9.63% B:0.37%) 54.41% (G:12.63% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.180...-0.166) - [99.9%] Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 8/5	eq: -0.189 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 45.22% (G:11.00% B:0.40%) 54.78% (G:13.36% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.196...-0.182) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
3.	Rollout2	8/7 8/5	eq: -0.196 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 44.93% (G:12.54% B:0.46%) 55.07% (G:15.02% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.207...-0.184) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
4.	Rollout3	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.200 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 44.81% (G:11.55% B:0.41%) 55.19% (G:13.73% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.214...-0.186) - [0.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 49 seconds
5.	Rollout3	24/20	eq: -0.202 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 43.64% (G:8.95% B:0.23%) 56.36% (G:7.48% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.215...-0.190) - [0.0%] Duration: 36 minutes 53 seconds
6.	Rollout3	20/17 6/5	eq: -0.224 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 44.83% (G:10.33% B:0.42%) 55.17% (G:14.24% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.237...-0.211) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 25 seconds
7.	Rollout3	13/10 6/5	eq: -0.245 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 43.96% (G:11.13% B:0.40%) 56.04% (G:14.72% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.259...-0.230) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 59 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9196576 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9196576 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9196576 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AD-E---cCb--b-eAb--A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: Two White 8pt checkers are on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	24/20	eq: -0.363
	Player: Opponent: 39.95% (G:7.54% B:0.25%) 60.05% (G:9.47% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.376...-0.350) - [100.0%] Duration: 37 minutes 41 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.395 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 40.65% (G:10.03% B:0.43%) 59.35% (G:18.20% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.408...-0.382) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/23 8/5	eq: -0.402 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 40.45% (G:10.29% B:0.47%) 59.55% (G:19.13% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.415...-0.390) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 46 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/7 8/5	eq: -0.410 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 40.64% (G:10.45% B:0.44%) 59.36% (G:20.92% B:1.06%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.424...-0.397) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 28 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/10 6/5	eq: -0.420 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 40.29% (G:10.02% B:0.43%) 59.71% (G:19.71% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.434...-0.407) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 02 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 14642922 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 152 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---AD-E---cCb--b-eA-b-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 5: Two White 8pt checkers are on her 3pt

1.	Rollout1	24/23 8/5	eq: -0.314
	Player: Opponent: 42.52% (G:10.80% B:0.47%) 57.48% (G:18.93% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.321...-0.308) - [63.1%] Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.316 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 42.87% (G:11.03% B:0.49%) 57.13% (G:18.37% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.324...-0.309) - [36.8%] Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/20	eq: -0.329 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 40.86% (G:8.20% B:0.25%) 59.14% (G:9.74% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.336...-0.323) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/21 6/5	eq: -0.341 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 42.06% (G:9.82% B:0.47%) 57.94% (G:19.35% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.354...-0.329) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 50 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/10 6/5	eq: -0.345 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 42.37% (G:10.73% B:0.49%) 57.63% (G:19.80% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.360...-0.331) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 04 seconds
6.	Rollout2	8/7 8/5	eq: -0.352 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 42.23% (G:11.12% B:0.47%) 57.77% (G:20.56% B:1.03%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.365...-0.339) - [0.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 49 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79130312 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79130312 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Make up your mind II
  pierrez -- Saturday, 2 May 2026, at 7:12 p.m.
  • Make up your mind II
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 2 May 2026, at 11:36 p.m.
  • Make up your mind II
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 3 May 2026, at 3:50 a.m.
  • Make up your mind II
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 3 May 2026, at 3:16 p.m.
  • Make up your mind II
    Stick -- Tuesday, 5 May 2026, at 6:37 a.m.
  • Make up your mind II - Rollout
    pierrez -- Tuesday, 5 May 2026, at 3:51 p.m.
    • Make up your mind II - Six best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 9 May 2026, at 5:29 a.m.