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Make up your mind III - Four best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 9 May 2026, at 3:45 p.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind III - Rollout (pierrez)





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 102
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 100
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-B-aBBCBC-a------bbbb-cbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.Rollout18/3* eq: +0,147
Player:
Opponent:		48,32% (G:14,84% B:0,33%)
51,68% (G:11,61% B:0,41%)		Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,139...+0,156) - [99,8%]
Duration: 9 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 6/4eq: +0,131 (-0,017)
Player:
Opponent:		45,98% (G:13,53% B:0,76%)
54,02% (G:6,60% B:0,14%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,124...+0,137) - [0,1%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 8/6eq: +0,129 (-0,019)
Player:
Opponent:		45,58% (G:13,41% B:0,79%)
54,42% (G:6,45% B:0,19%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,122...+0,135) - [0,0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout16/3* 3/1eq: +0,127 (-0,020)
Player:
Opponent:		47,74% (G:10,21% B:0,19%)
52,26% (G:7,63% B:0,25%)		Conf.: ± 0,006 (+0,120...+0,133) - [0,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 20 seconds
5.4-ply8/5 6/4eq: +0,020 (-0,127)
Player:
Opponent:		43,11% (G:7,55% B:0,10%)
56,89% (G:6,35% B:0,25%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Altogether, four positions with four different best plays.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 99
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 100
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-aBBCBC----a---bbbb-cbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 15pt checker is on her 12pt

1.Rollout16/3* 3/1eq: +0.133
Player:
Opponent:		48.42% (G:7.35% B:0.14%)
51.58% (G:7.27% B:0.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.128...+0.138) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout18/3* eq: +0.120 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		48.79% (G:10.86% B:0.23%)
51.21% (G:11.02% B:0.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.115...+0.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout224/21 6/4eq: +0.099 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		45.51% (G:10.12% B:0.51%)
54.49% (G:5.78% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.094...+0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout224/21 8/6eq: +0.091 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		45.41% (G:9.78% B:0.46%)
54.59% (G:5.83% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.084...+0.098) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44874560
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44874560
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 100
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-aBBCBC-a----b--bbb-cbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 8pt is changed to her 10pt

1.Rollout124/21 6/4eq: +0.207
Player:
Opponent:		49.16% (G:13.86% B:0.74%)
50.84% (G:6.37% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.200...+0.214) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 8/6eq: +0.176 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		48.12% (G:13.62% B:0.74%)
51.88% (G:6.47% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.169...+0.183) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 07 seconds
3.Rollout18/3* eq: +0.136 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:		47.29% (G:16.19% B:0.30%)
52.71% (G:12.65% B:0.55%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.128...+0.145) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
4.Rollout16/3* 3/1eq: +0.083 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent:		46.00% (G:10.73% B:0.18%)
54.00% (G:8.69% B:0.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.075...+0.091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 18 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3581968
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 94
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaB-CBC--a-----bbbb-cbA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 5pt is changed to his 2pt

1.Rollout124/21 8/6eq: -0.042
Player:
Opponent:		40.14% (G:10.77% B:0.46%)
59.86% (G:6.56% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.048...-0.036) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 6/4eq: -0.061 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		39.55% (G:9.97% B:0.40%)
60.45% (G:6.65% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.067...-0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout16/3* 3/1eq: -0.065 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		40.20% (G:6.61% B:0.08%)
59.80% (G:6.27% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.070...-0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout18/3* eq: -0.122 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:		39.44% (G:9.73% B:0.17%)
60.56% (G:10.87% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.127...-0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14642922
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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