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Make up your mind IV - Rollout - Variant with cube

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Wednesday, 13 May 2026, at 9:38 a.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind IV (pierrez)

What is best :at DMP ?

To make the 23pt anchor, then to strengthen the innerboard and to wait for a victorious shot ?

Or to launch an attack on the White blot and to rely on being favorite to make the 24 pt or 23 pt anchor if hit ?

The former is the best choice by far. Partly because g and bg have no value when dancing rolls have big value for Blue and partly because white builders are a bit far away from her inner board

		White is Joueur 2 score: 0 pip: 123 1 point match pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=--BB-aBBB-a-cC-a---bbbcA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24 7/5*	eq: -0,333
	Player: Opponent: 33,34% (G:12,69% B:1,12%) 66,66% (G:36,55% B:9,53%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,339...-0,328) - [100,0%] Duration: 21 minutes 55 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 7/6	eq: -0,410 (-0,077)
	Player: Opponent: 29,50% (G:5,73% B:0,41%) 70,50% (G:22,76% B:3,41%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,414...-0,406) - [0,0%] Duration: 19 minutes 05 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/7	eq: -0,416 (-0,083)
	Player: Opponent: 29,18% (G:5,19% B:0,33%) 70,82% (G:22,98% B:3,23%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,421...-0,412) - [0,0%] Duration: 18 minutes 57 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/23 2/1	eq: -0,450 (-0,117)
	Player: Opponent: 27,50% (G:4,63% B:0,13%) 72,50% (G:21,47% B:3,66%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,454...-0,446) - [0,0%] Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds
5.	4-ply	Bar/23 3/2	eq: -0,487 (-0,154)
	Player: Opponent: 25,65% (G:4,32% B:0,11%) 74,35% (G:16,33% B:0,79%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

What if the cube was on Blue side ?

The immediate long term asset, i. e. making the 23pt anchor is better, but by a tiny margin.

		White is Joueur 2 score: 0 pip: 123 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=--BB-aBBB-a-cC-a---bbbcA-A:1:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	Bar/23 7/6	eq: -0,441
	Player: Opponent: 28,54% (G:6,24% B:0,22%) 71,46% (G:16,88% B:0,91%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,448...-0,434) - [97,5%] Duration: 15 minutes 36 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/23 8/7	eq: -0,451 (-0,010)
	Player: Opponent: 27,92% (G:5,52% B:0,16%) 72,08% (G:15,96% B:0,83%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,457...-0,444) - [2,4%] Duration: 15 minutes 18 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/24 7/5*	eq: -0,462 (-0,021)
	Player: Opponent: 32,70% (G:12,42% B:0,65%) 67,30% (G:34,21% B:3,55%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,472...-0,451) - [0,1%] Duration: 17 minutes 26 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/23 2/1	eq: -0,474 (-0,033)
	Player: Opponent: 26,20% (G:4,60% B:0,09%) 73,80% (G:12,90% B:0,79%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,480...-0,468) - [0,0%] Duration: 14 minutes 23 seconds
5.	XG Roller++	Bar/23 3/2	eq: -0,498 (-0,057)
	Player: Opponent: 25,28% (G:3,77% B:0,08%) 74,72% (G:12,66% B:0,53%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Make up your mind IV
  pierrez -- Monday, 11 May 2026, at 9:19 p.m.
  • Make up your mind IV
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 11 May 2026, at 10:02 p.m.
  • Make up your mind IV
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 12 May 2026, at 2:47 p.m.
  • Make up your mind IV
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 12 May 2026, at 4:30 p.m.
    • Make up your mind IV
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 12 May 2026, at 5:24 p.m.
  • Make up your mind IV
    OpenWheel -- Tuesday, 12 May 2026, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Make up your mind IV - Rollout - Variant with cube
    pierrez -- Wednesday, 13 May 2026, at 9:38 a.m.