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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 3 February 2007, at 8:31 a.m.

In Response To: Stick/Weaver - double aces (Stick)

I made this move OTB like it was automatic and it was far from. Looking at it now I completely agree that bar/24(2) 24/22 is correct. While making the bar point isn't terrible it doesn't do much to hem White in since he already has the 5 pt. anchor made. On top of that if I give him another roll to make his five pt. and bring down builders/etc... I will then be in serious trouble when I split whereas if I make the split now I'm likely to find myself the 3 anchor and I put pressure on White's outfield blot and 8 pt, he might have to use the 8 pt. to cover the 5 pt.


Match to 11, White leads 6 to 5
164
156
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/24(2) 24/22 -0.344
0.4% 9.3% 41.7% 58.3% 18.9% 0.9%
Live cube rollout: -0.370
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.266 ±0.014, - live cube: -0.370 ±0.032. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1080 games (equiv. 32581 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
* 2 R bar/24(2) 8/7(2) -0.397 (-0.054)
0.4% 9.0% 40.6% 59.4% 19.1% 0.8%
Live cube rollout: -0.444
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.294 ±0.014, - live cube: -0.444 ±0.034. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1080 games (equiv. 29890 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.

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