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Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit - Rollout Strikeout
Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 28 May 2026, at 4:24 a.m.
In Response To: Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit (Stick)
Three strikes and the team is out. After the no hit play the opponent has virtually nothing that hurts us. Sure, [55 44] are good for him as are [33 22] to a lesser extent but there's nothing to be done about those rolls in any scenario anyway. (hitting may stop [55] but we get the tar smacked out of us with [44]) Hitting also leaves the opponent pretty darn happy with any entering + hitting four or the small doublets. That's a lot of rolls he doesn't have immediately otherwise. Even if we escape the immediate threat we still have to skate out of there quickly and safely which isn't so easy to do. Even hit + fan leaves the game in a pure coinflip.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 107 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----BEbC----C--a-dbbbBb--:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/4 | eq: -0.138 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.84% (G:7.10% B:0.24%)
61.16% (G:11.96% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.146...-0.131) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/16* 16/13 | eq: -0.271 (-0.132) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.41% (G:5.60% B:0.26%)
62.59% (G:20.80% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.279...-0.263) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28.6 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 22/16* 8/5 | eq: -0.281 (-0.143) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.87% (G:6.61% B:0.30%)
62.13% (G:24.17% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.290...-0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25.5 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
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