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Position of the Day 05-23-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 1 June 2026, at 8:33 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-23-26 (Stick)

You need four active builders to double such a position. (be careful how you apply this advice, I'm not going into the slew of details that need to align for this advice to be useful) See variant below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aBDCB---dB-a-bBcb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 61.72% (G:15.12% B:0.30%) 61.37% (G:16.35% B:0.30%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 38.28% (G:6.99% B:0.28%) 38.63% (G:6.89% B:0.31%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.316 +0.644
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.462±0.012 (+0.451..+0.474)
Double/Take:+0.377 (-0.086)±0.017 (+0.360..+0.393)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.538)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 59.5 seconds

Variant
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aCCCB---dB-a-bBcb-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.96% (G:17.45% B:0.35%) 64.90% (G:18.90% B:0.36%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.04% (G:6.68% B:0.24%) 35.10% (G:6.68% B:0.26%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.408 +0.842
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.592 (-0.001)±0.005 (+0.586..+0.597)
Double/Take:+0.593±0.008 (+0.585..+0.601)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.407)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:57.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds

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