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Hit/No Hit - Rollout Strikeout - Four best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 7 June 2026, at 5:31 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit - Rollout Strikeout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 107 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BEbC----C--a-dbbbBb--:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: -0.138
	Player: Opponent: 38.84% (G:7.10% B:0.24%) 61.16% (G:11.96% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.146...-0.131) - [100.0%] Duration: 26.1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16* 16/13	eq: -0.271 (-0.132)
	Player: Opponent: 37.41% (G:5.60% B:0.26%) 62.59% (G:20.80% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.279...-0.263) - [0.0%] Duration: 28.6 seconds
3.	Rollout1	22/16* 8/5	eq: -0.281 (-0.143)
	Player: Opponent: 37.87% (G:6.61% B:0.30%) 62.13% (G:24.17% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.290...-0.272) - [0.0%] Duration: 25.5 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Four positions altogether, with four best plays represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 107 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 145 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----B-EbC----C--a-dbbbBb--:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Blue's 5pt is changed to his 4pt

1.	Rollout1	8/2 6/3	eq: -0.266
	Player: Opponent: 34.20% (G:5.69% B:0.18%) 65.80% (G:12.88% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.272...-0.260) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/4	eq: -0.295 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 32.92% (G:5.19% B:0.15%) 67.08% (G:12.18% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.302...-0.288) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds
3.	Rollout1	22/16* 16/13	eq: -0.308 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 36.23% (G:5.29% B:0.23%) 63.77% (G:21.94% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.316...-0.300) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 01 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 19088718 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 107 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B--BCbC----C--a-dbbbBb--:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Two Blue 6pt checkers are on his 2pt

1.	Rollout1	22/16* 8/5	eq: -0.050
	Player: Opponent: 44.63% (G:8.28% B:0.31%) 55.37% (G:18.96% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.055...-0.045) - [100.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16* 16/13	eq: -0.064 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 43.53% (G:6.46% B:0.24%) 56.47% (G:16.29% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.067...-0.060) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 42 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/4	eq: -0.154 (-0.104)
	Player: Opponent: 38.05% (G:6.49% B:0.22%) 61.95% (G:11.24% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.164...-0.144) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 5308537 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 5308537 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 107 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---BCbC----C--a-dbbbBb--:1:1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Two Blue 6pt checkers are on his 1pt

1.	Rollout1	22/16* 16/13	eq: -0.058
	Player: Opponent: 43.67% (G:6.81% B:0.18%) 56.33% (G:16.29% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.062...-0.054) - [62.9%] Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16* 8/5	eq: -0.059 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 44.30% (G:8.47% B:0.24%) 55.70% (G:19.36% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.063...-0.055) - [37.1%] Duration: 17 minutes 12 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/4	eq: -0.192 (-0.134)
	Player: Opponent: 36.75% (G:6.30% B:0.17%) 63.25% (G:11.34% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.199...-0.185) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/16* 13/10	eq: -0.200 (-0.142)
	Player: Opponent: 40.70% (G:7.93% B:0.22%) 59.30% (G:23.81% B:1.01%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.208...-0.192) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38863562 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38863562 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit
  Stick -- Monday, 25 May 2026, at 6:32 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 25 May 2026, at 9:47 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit
    ah_clem -- Monday, 25 May 2026, at 11:38 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Tuesday, 26 May 2026, at 12:37 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit - Rollout Strikeout
    Stick -- Thursday, 28 May 2026, at 4:24 a.m.
    • Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit - Rollout Strikeout
      OpenWheel -- Thursday, 28 May 2026, at 12:11 p.m.
      • Position of the Day 05-19-26 - Hit/No Hit - DMP Rollout
        Stick -- Thursday, 28 May 2026, at 7:15 p.m.
    • Hit/No Hit - Rollout Strikeout - Four best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 7 June 2026, at 5:31 p.m.