Nickels - Five best plays

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Nickels - Five best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 8 June 2026, at 8:53 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 05-27-26 - Nickels - Rollout (Nobody!) (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-B--D-B---dD---c-cbB-Ab-:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 23/13 21/16(2) eq: -0.265
Player:
Opponent: 42.77% (G:5.91% B:0.15%)
57.23% (G:11.66% B:0.18%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.276...-0.253) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/13 6/1*(2) eq: -0.320 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent: 40.49% (G:9.04% B:0.12%)
59.51% (G:9.57% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.331...-0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 23/8 13/8 eq: -0.329 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent: 40.40% (G:6.66% B:0.20%)
59.60% (G:7.77% B:0.19%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.340...-0.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 12 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.368 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent: 41.11% (G:10.75% B:0.20%)
58.89% (G:18.95% B:0.40%) Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.382...-0.355) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57.4 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.428 (-0.163)
Player:
Opponent: 38.47% (G:10.54% B:0.18%)
61.53% (G:14.81% B:0.49%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.439...-0.417) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.9 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 21/11(2) eq: -0.490 (-0.225)
Player:
Opponent: 39.70% (G:8.56% B:0.39%)
60.30% (G:23.66% B:0.33%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.503...-0.477) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are several variants. Altogether, five positions with five different best plays represented.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 126

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-B--D-B---dD---c-c-BbAb-:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 5pt is changed to her 3pt

1. Rollout¹ 23/13 6/1*(2) eq: -0.159
Player:
Opponent: 44.72% (G:12.51% B:0.22%)
55.28% (G:11.23% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.170...-0.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 45 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.213 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent: 43.69% (G:13.84% B:0.22%)
56.31% (G:14.40% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.226...-0.201) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 51 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 23/8 13/8 eq: -0.223 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent: 43.50% (G:8.34% B:0.20%)
56.50% (G:8.96% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.236...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 23 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.246 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent: 43.97% (G:14.07% B:0.29%)
56.03% (G:20.54% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.261...-0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 56 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 21/11 6/1*(2) eq: -0.253 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent: 43.18% (G:14.45% B:0.27%)
56.82% (G:19.01% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.265...-0.241) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 47 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/8 6/1*(2) eq: -0.258 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent: 42.45% (G:12.24% B:0.22%)
57.55% (G:14.01% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.270...-0.247) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 20 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72997692
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-B--D-B---dD---c-e-B-Ab-:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 5pt checkers are back on her 6pt

1. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.051
Player:
Opponent: 50.73% (G:16.99% B:0.33%)
49.27% (G:14.98% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.044...+0.057) - [88.8%]
Duration: 58 minutes 25 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.045 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent: 49.69% (G:17.51% B:0.30%)
50.31% (G:11.59% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.039...+0.052) - [11.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
3. Rollout² 21/11 6/1*(2) eq: +0.019 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 49.77% (G:18.19% B:0.34%)
50.23% (G:15.24% B:0.65%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.006...+0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 03 seconds
4. Rollout² 21/16 13/8 6/1*(2) eq: +0.017 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 49.56% (G:17.97% B:0.37%)
50.44% (G:15.17% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.004...+0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 56 seconds
5. Rollout² 23/13 6/1*(2) eq: +0.013 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent: 49.03% (G:14.76% B:0.21%)
50.97% (G:9.17% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (0.000...+0.027) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 45 seconds
6. Rollout² 23/18 13/8 6/1*(2) eq: -0.027 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent: 48.03% (G:15.12% B:0.26%)
51.97% (G:10.81% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.038...-0.015) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5308537
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5308537
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-B--D-B---bD---c-ebB-Ab-:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Two White 13pt checkers are on her 6pt

1. Rollout¹ 23/8 13/8 eq: -0.511
Player:
Opponent: 36.04% (G:5.51% B:0.18%)
63.96% (G:10.83% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.517...-0.504) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 00 second
2. Rollout¹ 23/13 21/16(2) eq: -0.531 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent: 36.12% (G:4.80% B:0.17%)
63.86% (G:15.13% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.538...-0.523) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 24 seconds
3. Rollout² 23/18 13/8 6/1*(2) eq: -0.539 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent: 35.50% (G:7.41% B:0.19%)
64.50% (G:14.91% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.550...-0.528) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 32 seconds
4. Rollout² 23/13 6/1*(2) eq: -0.547 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 34.91% (G:6.49% B:0.15%)
65.09% (G:12.66% B:0.25%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.558...-0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 20 seconds

¹ 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35388764
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35388764
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-a-B--D-B---cD---c-cbBaAb-:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: A White 13pt checker is on her 3pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.470
Player:
Opponent: 37.57% (G:11.59% B:0.21%)
62.43% (G:17.13% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.476...-0.465) - [55.9%]
Duration: 34 minutes 53 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/13 6/1*(2) eq: -0.472 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent: 36.45% (G:7.68% B:0.14%)
63.55% (G:12.27% B:0.27%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.479...-0.466) - [27.1%]
Duration: 28 minutes 56 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 6/1*(2) eq: -0.473 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent: 39.12% (G:11.57% B:0.28%)
60.88% (G:24.44% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.479...-0.467) - [16.8%]
Duration: 28 minutes 29 seconds
4. Rollout² 21/16 13/8 6/1*(2) eq: -0.488 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 37.73% (G:12.13% B:0.31%)
62.27% (G:25.78% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.499...-0.476) - [0.2%]
Duration: 13 minutes 50 seconds
5. Rollout² 23/8 13/8 eq: -0.490 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent: 36.41% (G:5.70% B:0.19%)
63.59% (G:10.02% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.498...-0.482) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 39 seconds
6. Rollout² 21/11 6/1*(2) eq: -0.490 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent: 37.43% (G:11.83% B:0.26%)
62.57% (G:24.52% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.501...-0.479) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 10 seconds
7. Rollout³ 23/18 13/8 6/1*(2) eq: -0.495 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 36.33% (G:8.48% B:0.18%)
63.67% (G:14.48% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.508...-0.483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 15 seconds
8. Rollout³ 23/13 21/16(2) eq: -0.499 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent: 37.05% (G:4.62% B:0.14%)
62.95% (G:15.19% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.513...-0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 37 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82405688
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82405688
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82405688
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Position of the Day 05-27-26 - Nickels
Stick -- Tuesday, 2 June 2026, at 7:02 a.m.
- Position of the Day 05-27-26 - Nickels
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 2 June 2026, at 1:09 p.m.
- Position of the Day 05-27-26 - Nickels
  ah_clem -- Tuesday, 2 June 2026, at 3:05 p.m.
- Position of the Day 05-27-26 - Nickels
  OpenWheel -- Tuesday, 2 June 2026, at 3:21 p.m.
- Position of the Day 05-27-26 - Nickels
  mamabear -- Tuesday, 2 June 2026, at 8:18 p.m.
- Position of the Day 05-27-26 - Nickels
  Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 2 June 2026, at 9:24 p.m.
- Position of the Day 05-27-26 - Nickels - Rollout (Nobody!)
  Stick -- Thursday, 4 June 2026, at 11:11 p.m.
  - Nickels - Five best plays
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 8 June 2026, at 8:53 p.m.

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