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Position of the Day 06-04-26 Bonus Question - Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 13 June 2026, at 5:45 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 06-04-26 Bonus Question (Stick)

It's a ND after either play though it's closer to being a cube after the best play than the distant second best play because of the volatility the best play introduces.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa--BCaC---cD--ba-cbb--B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout113/7* eq: -0.611
Player:
Opponent:		36.36% (G:11.54% B:0.49%)
63.64% (G:26.48% B:2.85%)		Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.627...-0.594) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.665 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		34.42% (G:11.36% B:0.45%)
65.58% (G:22.23% B:1.49%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.676...-0.654) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Cube action after best play (13/7*)
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 147
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aAa--BCAC---cC--ba-cbb--B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.92% (G:26.34% B:2.71%) 63.76% (G:26.59% B:2.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.08% (G:11.46% B:0.49%) 36.24% (G:11.59% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities +0.449 +0.897
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.632±0.007 (+0.625..+0.639)
Double/Take:+0.609 (-0.023)±0.012 (+0.598..+0.621)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.368)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.5%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

Cube action after making the four point
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 147
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-Aa-BBBaB---cD--ba-cbb--B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.63% (G:21.97% B:1.44%) 65.52% (G:22.79% B:1.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.37% (G:11.32% B:0.44%) 34.48% (G:11.63% B:0.44%)
Cubeless Equities +0.429 +0.865
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.658±0.017 (+0.641..+0.676)
Double/Take:+0.606 (-0.052)±0.020 (+0.586..+0.627)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.342)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 00 second

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