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Position of the Day 06-05-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 13 June 2026, at 5:58 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 06-05-26 (Stick)

Making the 3pt had quite a commanding lead in the rollout even reaching the coveted 100% confidence level. (just after 300+ trials then again even after 1296 trials!) At that point I was surprised at the difference in plays so I decided to run some more trials to reduce the variance. As you can see, the top two plays became much, much closer with more trials.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBD-C---bDA-ac-e-b--A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.181
Player:
Opponent:		46.66% (G:8.42% B:0.37%)
53.34% (G:16.17% B:0.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.188...-0.175) - [81.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout114/11 13/8eq: -0.185 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		46.16% (G:7.80% B:0.34%)
53.84% (G:13.82% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.192...-0.179) - [18.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout214/6eq: -0.208 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		45.52% (G:6.55% B:0.28%)
54.48% (G:13.23% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.217...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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