          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 148
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----bBD-C---bDA-ac-e-b--A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Original position |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/3 6/3 | eq: -0.181 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.66% (G:8.42% B:0.37%)
53.34% (G:16.17% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.188...-0.175) - [81.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/11 13/8 | eq: -0.185 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.16% (G:7.80% B:0.34%)
53.84% (G:13.82% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.192...-0.179) - [18.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 14/6 | eq: -0.208 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.52% (G:6.55% B:0.28%)
54.48% (G:13.23% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.217...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are two (slightly) contrasting variants.
Stick's example of what can happen with two few trials is apropos. In my view, the goal in a rollout should not just be a matter of identifying the best play, but also (even more so) generating a margin that is near reality, especially when the margin between the top plays is close enough to be worthy of attention.
For most positions, I give more credence to a (a) 5k rollout with 3-ply (or 3p/XGR) than, for example, a (b) 1k rollout with XGR+ and huge search interval. As a bonus, "a" is much faster to roll out.
Another example (incidental, perhaps less dramatic, not planned) can be seen in the fourth diagram (third below), which is also Variant 2 but rolled to only 1k, same 35388764 seed. 14/11 13/8 appeared to be firmly ahead before the turnaround at 5k (shown in the first "Variant 2" diagram below).
Nack
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 141 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 148
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----bBD-C---bDA-ad-d-b--A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10 |
Variant 1: A White 6pt spare is on her 8pt
|
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/11 13/8 | eq: -0.182 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.96% (G:7.42% B:0.33%)
54.04% (G:12.97% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.191...-0.172) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/3 6/3 | eq: -0.204 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.65% (G:8.37% B:0.37%)
54.35% (G:14.37% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.213...-0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 14/6 | eq: -0.210 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.16% (G:6.27% B:0.25%)
54.84% (G:12.27% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.217...-0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 8810595
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 135 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 148
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----bBD-C---bDA-ab-dbb--A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10 |
Variant 2: White has made her 5pt
(top two plays rolled to 5184 trials) |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/6 | eq: -0.581 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.35% (G:6.42% B:0.28%)
62.65% (G:21.69% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.588...-0.575) - [55.2%]
Duration: 28 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/11 13/8 | eq: -0.582 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.59% (G:7.19% B:0.35%)
63.41% (G:23.85% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.594...-0.570) - [44.8%]
Duration: 27 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 8/3 6/3 | eq: -0.607 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.44% (G:7.35% B:0.34%)
62.56% (G:25.29% B:0.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.621...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35388764
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35388764
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 135 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 148
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----bBD-C---bDA-ab-dbb--A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10 |
Variant 2: White has made her 5pt
(top two plays rolled to only 1296 trials) |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/11 13/8 | eq: -0.563 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.60% (G:7.15% B:0.35%)
63.40% (G:23.86% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.037 (-0.600...-0.526) - [83.5%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/6 | eq: -0.582 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.29% (G:6.43% B:0.27%)
62.71% (G:21.45% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.595...-0.569) - [16.5%]
Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/3 6/3 | eq: -0.608 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.44% (G:7.34% B:0.34%)
62.56% (G:25.28% B:0.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.621...-0.594) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35388764
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|