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Position of the Day 06-11-26 - Even more cubes - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 18 June 2026, at 5:35 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 06-11-26 - Even more cubes (Stick)

I didn't give the take/pass part of this problem any thought whatsoever OtB because I was the on roll player and just immediately doubled XG. In reviewing later I saw how close the decision was and it was mildly surprising. Again, no thought given but my knee jerk reflex would have been to take. If I'd have taken the time like John did to compare it to one of my reference positions I hope I'd have had a better grasp of the position.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBa--BD-A---dDa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.60% (G:36.59% B:1.19%) 66.07% (G:38.77% B:1.18%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.40% (G:7.87% B:0.37%) 33.93% (G:8.22% B:0.41%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.607 +1.269
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.732 (-0.263)±0.006 (+0.726..+0.738)
Double/Take:+0.995±0.010 (+0.986..+1.005)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.005)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:84.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds

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