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Double Trouble #5

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 16 July 2026, at 11:35 p.m.

In Response To: Double Trouble #5 (Jason Lee)

7/1 7/5 looks best. If White dances, I count only 6 numbers that will leave a direct next time (but some of the other 30 will still leave a gap on the 2-point which will leave some future jeopardy) If White does hit, Blue will have no other blots. Over the next 2 rolls by both sides, Blue will get hit about 12.25/36 (11/36 + 25/36 x 1/6 x .3) after playing 7/1 7/5.

How about 7/1 6/4 (or 5/3). After either of these plays, there's close to zero jeopardy if White doesn't roll a 2. The issue is that 2nd blot on the 7. That's a real liability if White rolls a 2 and is then able to his second checker from the roof before Blue enters with his lone checker. White will win this "entering contest" with an immediate 22, and about 40% of the time after rolling a single 2. These sequences occur ~5/36 and the equity lost from these is > the gain when White dances.

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