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Position of the day 07-10-26

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Thursday, 23 July 2026, at 9:21 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the day 07-10-26 (Stick)

8/3 looks like the play, but whether to hit or not is the question. This could be a close call, but I'm going with the hit, 8/5*/3. His stay-out rolls help us a lot, and his re-entry rolls that don't hit are overall worse for him than they would have been had we not hit. This is especially true of the clean-escaping 65, and also the 55, giving him a 12-pip lead if we don't hit, but only a 7-pip lead if we do. That could matter a lot because of his much better bearoff distribution.

The hit is stronger with Jacoby rule in force, because Oppo's best hit/fan sequences force a double-out rather than permit a play-on. I don't think it swings the decision, always the way to bet, but who knows? The Silicon Oracle will tell all 🙂

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