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Stronger settings or with BGblitz?

Posted By: Philippe Michel
Date: Sunday, 26 July 2026, at 7:17 p.m.

In Response To: Stronger settings or with BGblitz? (Bob Koca)

GNUbg seems to do slightly better for yor thesis ("seems" since the is a relatively large uncertainty on the absolute equities, the only statistically significant result is the cube decision).

But if the bot thinks it is a double, that means it sees a fair amount of market losers (sequences that clear an outfield point, maybe ?). Having White play a little better should not change this much.

Scraping only 15-20 millipoints in what is probably generally a long game remaining does not bode well for reverting the cube decision. I would guess the equities should be in the low 0.7s to make a difference.

Unlimited game, Jacoby rule

GNUbg	187
You	114
Position ID: thEAcw7lnBkDAQ Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

You doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.581
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.857
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.143
3.	No double	+0.802	-0.055
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.635 0.371 0.010 - 0.365 0.066 0.003 +0.581 +0.802 Standard deviation 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.013 GNUbg owns 2-cube 0.636 0.372 0.009 - 0.364 0.063 0.002 +1.174 +0.857 Standard deviation 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.011 0.016
Full cubeful rollout with variance reduction
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 8 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2ply 2-ply cubeful prune [2ply]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.24
keep the first 0 1-ply moves and up to 6 more moves within equity 0.12
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [2ply]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.575
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.836
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.164
3.	No double	+0.788	-0.047
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.632 0.370 0.009 - 0.368 0.066 0.003 +0.575 +0.788 Standard deviation 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.010 GNUbg owns 2-cube 0.630 0.374 0.007 - 0.370 0.067 0.003 +1.144 +0.836 Standard deviation 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.008 0.012
Full cubeful rollout with variance reduction
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 8 and quasi-random dice
Play: 3ply 3-ply cubeful prune [3ply]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
keep the first 0 1-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 4 more moves within equity 0.06
Cube: 3-ply cubeful prune [3ply]

Messages In This Thread

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